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Home Depot sell-off may create short-term buying opportunity for Lowe's - Bernstein

Published 05/17/2023, 11:50 PM
© Reuters.
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Bernstein analysts cut the firm's price target on Home Depot (NYSE:HD) to $314 from $333, maintaining a Market Perform rating on the stock in a note Wednesday.

The analysts also told investors in their note that the HD sell-off may have created a short-term tactical buying opportunity for Lowe's Cos. (NYSE:LOW) while they also like Floor & Decor Holdings (NYSE:FND) here.

Assessing HD's recent earnings release, the analysts said the company reported a really weak 1Q top-line, and they have concerns.

"Comp sales were down (4.5%), a 450-bps miss vs guidance, and a 300bps miss to Cons," they wrote. "We're concerned that Mgmt didn't see the 200+bps headwind from lumber deflation. And we're also concerned -- more so, really -- with weaker-than-expected consumer demand. And we found little consolation in better-than-expected profitability in 1Q, as it was a one-time legal settlement that drove a 2c beat vs. Cons."

"HD stock closed down 2% on the day, and LOW was down 1.2%. But given the magnitude of the miss and the guide-down -- a rarity for HD -- that feels like a tiny downward reaction. And we can only conclude that investors weren't at all surprised," they added.

"The small sell-off may have created a (short-term tactical) buying opportunity for LOW (which reports next Tues) since HD reported Pro was weaker than DIY (though both negative), and LOW is less exposed to Pro than HD."

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