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GLOBAL MARKETS-Fears of pandemic send stocks lower, safe havens in demand

Published 01/30/2020, 03:02 PM
Updated 01/30/2020, 03:08 PM
GLOBAL MARKETS-Fears of pandemic send stocks lower, safe havens in demand
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* Virus death toll rises, WHO to reconsider declaring
emergency
* Economists slash China growth forecasts
* Stocks extend falls, safe-haven assets sought
* Asian stock markets: https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4

By Tom Westbrook and Swati Pandey
SINGAPORE/SYDNEY, Jan 30 (Reuters) - Asian stocks and
currencies tumbled further on Thursday, as the rising death toll
from a virus spreading from China led airlines to cut flights
and stores to close, increasing pressure on the world's
second-largest economy as fears of a pandemic grow.
European stocks are also set to fall. EuroSTOXX 50 futures
STXEc1 and DAX futures FDXc1 are down 0.8%. FTSE futures
FFIc1 point to a negative open in London. U.S. stock futures
ESc1 , down 0.6%, suggest a negative open on Wall Street.
The number of confirmed deaths from the virus in China has
climbed to 170 with 7,711 people infected, and more cases are
being reported around the world. Chinese factories have extended holidays, global airlines
cut flights and Sweden's Ikea said it would shut all of its
stores in China to help contain the outbreak. Economists have
begun slashing the country's growth outlook.
"The news flow in the past couple of hours has been quite
bleak," said Prashant Newnaha a Singapore-based strategist at TD
Securities. "So the risk off tone continues."
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan
.MIAPJ0000PUS fell 2% to a seven-week low and has now dropped
for six straight sessions.
Japan's Nikkei .N225 fell nearly 2%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng
.HSI fell 2.3% and Taiwan's benchmark index .TWII slumped
5.8% in its first session since the Lunar New Year break.
Yields on benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasuries, which fall when
prices rise, hit a three-month low of 1.5600% US10YT=RR . Gold
nudged higher XAU= .
The World Health Organisation's Emergency Committee is due
to reconvene later in the day to decide whether the rapid spread
of the virus now constitutes a global emergency. "There's a buyers strike. Lot of reasons to sell and no
reason to buy, so you're seeing this bleeding," said Chris
Weston, Head of Research at Melbourne brokerage Pepperstone.
"There is some concern about tonight's presser by the WHO.
The fear is that they might raise the alarm bells...so people
are taking money off the table."
Singapore-traded futures for Chinese markets SFCc1 - which
have been closed since Jan. 23 and re-open on Monday - dropped
2% and have fallen 10% in the 10 days since the spread of the
virus began to roil markets.

CURRENCIES AND COMMODITIES
Trade exposed Asian currencies and commodities sensitive to
Chinese demand extended losses as economists made deep cuts to
their China growth forecasts.
The Chinese yuan CNH= reversed Wednesday's gains to weaken
0.2%. The Australian dollar AUD=D3 hit a 3-1/2-month low and
the kiwi dollar NZD=D3 was a fraction above a two-month low.
The Taiwan dollar TWD=TP fell half a percentage point to
its lowest this year. The Thai baht THB=TH , exposed to inbound
tourism from China, has shed 3% in a week. FRX/
Oil prices, a barometer of the expected impact of the virus
on the world's economy, resumed their slide. Brent crude LCOc1
shed a percentage point and has dropped 10% since Jan 20. O/R
Chicago soybean futures slid for an eighth straight session
on growing fears that promised Chinese purchases of U.S. farm
goods will not materialise.
"China is the kingpin of the global commodities market," ING
economists said in a note. "The longer factories remain closed,
travel restricted and construction stalled, the larger the
ramifications."

SARS 2.0?
Most analysts have looked to the impact from the 2002-2003
spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), which killed
800 people and pounded tourism and confidence, albeit briefly.
Yet the number of infections has already almost exceeded the
8,000 total SARS cases and, nearly two decades later, China's
share of the world economy has increased fourfold.
Citi expects China's 2020 growth to slow to 5.5% because of
the virus, after previously predicting it to be 5.8%, with the
sharpest slowdown this quarter. That is even more bearish than
J.P. Morgan and ING economists, who forsee a slowdown to 5.6.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged on
Wednesday the risks from any slowdown in the Chinese economy but
said it was too early to say what the extent of the impact would
be on the United States.
"SARS is a base case but until we get more information it's
very difficult for markets to gauge," said Jim McCafferty, Joint
Head of APAC Equity Research at Nomura in Hong Kong.
"It's very difficult for investors to get a gauge for the
magnitude of this, if this is going to be multi-day or a
multi-week or a multi-month event."

(Editing by Sam Holmes and Jacqueline Wong)

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