Global fund manager survey (FMS) sentiment is the most bullish since November 2021, driving cash levels to a three-year low, while equity allocation runs at a high level, Bank of America survey shows.
Meanwhile, the global risk sentiment is not yet extreme, citing the sentiment indicator.
The bank’s strategists pointed to a significant change in economic outlook, with 73% of fund managers believing there will be no recession. The probability of a "no landing" scenario has peaked at 26%, while a soft landing is the firm consensus at 64%. Expectations of a hard landing have hit new lows, with only 5% anticipating this outcome.
In terms of monetary policy path, eight out of ten investors expect two or more rate cuts in the next 12 months, with the first cut anticipated on September 18.
The survey also highlights that the biggest reallocation from money market funds would favor US stocks at 32%, followed by government bonds at 25%, global stocks at 19%, corporate bonds at 12%, and gold/commodities at 4%.
The most crowded trade remains the "Magnificent 7," with 69% of respondents citing this for the 15th consecutive month, marking the highest level of crowding since the tech boom in October 2020.
When it comes to macro conditions, inflation continues to be a primary concern for investors, albeit less so than in previous months. Currently, 32% of fund managers view higher inflation as the biggest tail risk, down from 41% in May. Geopolitical risks follow at 22%, and concerns about the US election have risen to 16% from 9% last month.
Asset allocation trends show a net 39% of investors are overweight stocks, while bonds are at their most underweight position since November 2022, at net -17%. European stocks have jumped to their largest overweight since January 2022, at 30%. Conversely, Japanese equity allocation saw the biggest drop since April 2016 but remains a net 4% overweight.
Sector-wise, investors have shown the highest overweight in banks since February 2023, while technology stocks are at their lowest overweight since October 2023. Utilities, meanwhile, are at their least underweight since July 2023, indicating a shift towards more defensive sectors.