Bank of America (BofA) analysts see positive signs for bank stocks heading into the US elections.
The note highlights how elections can significantly impact stock performance, noting the performance of Mexican and Indian equities in response to election surprises last week.
BofA believes the upcoming US elections will be no different, influencing investor sentiment based on anticipated changes in regulations, taxes, and economic growth.
Historically, according to BofA, "it has paid-off to maintain exposure to bank stocks around elections."
Analysts analyzed performance over the past eight election cycles (since 1992) and found that bank stocks rose in six out of eight instances leading up to the elections (starting from the end of May), averaging a gain of 2.9% and outperforming the S&P 500 by 2.6 percentage points.
The trend continued after the elections, with bank stocks rising in seven out of eight cycles two months later, averaging a 6.7% increase and again outperforming the S&P 500 by a significant 4.3 percentage points.
BofA concludes by expressing confidence in bank stocks, stating, "Absent a macro shock, we expect bank stocks to be well bid into the US elections."