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FOREX-Dollar out of favour as focus turns to non-farm payrolls data

Published 08/07/2020, 10:28 AM
Updated 08/07/2020, 10:30 AM
© Reuters.
USD/JPY
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USD/CHF
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XAU/USD
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GC
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US5YT=X
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US10YT=X
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0700
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(Adds gold in 14th paragraph, yuan in 18th paragraph)
* Graphic: World FX rates in 2020 https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E
* Dollar is weak against most currencies
* Traders looking for more U.S. economic stimulus
* Treasury yields another negative factor for the dollar

By Stanley White
TOKYO, Aug 7 (Reuters) - The dollar nursed losses against
major currencies on Friday ahead of the U.S. non-farm payrolls
report, which some investors fear could reinforce the view that
momentum in the world's largest economy is slowing.
Sentiment has turned against the greenback due to a
combination of rising U.S. coronavirus infections, a steady
decline in Treasury yields, and a lack of consensus in
Washington over additional fiscal stimulus.
Analysts say the dollar will continue to fall, particularly
against the euro, the yen and Swiss franc, as expectations for a
V-shaped recovery from the coronavirus epidemic fade and
investors take a more sanguine view of markets.
"I see further dollar weakness," said Michael McCarthy,
chief market strategist at CMC Markets in Sydney.
"Optimism for an economic recovery is not backed up by the
data. Safe-havens are very high, but stocks are also high, which
doesn't make sense. The party has to end at some point."
Against the euro EUR=D3 , the dollar stood at $1.1868 on
Friday, close to its weakest in more than two years.
The British pound GBP=D3 bought $1.3134, close to its
strongest level since March.
The dollar teetered near a five-year low against the
safe-harbour Swiss franc CHF= at 0.9109.
Against the yen JPY= , which is also considered a safe
currency, the dollar traded at 105.57, not far from a four-month
low.
Non-farm payrolls due later on Friday are widely expected to
show U.S. jobs creation slowed in July from the previous month,
indicating a resurgence in coronavirus infections is undermining
the economic recovery there.
Earlier this week, the five-year Treasury yield US5YT=RR
hit an all-time low, and the benchmark 10-year yield US10YT=RR
fell to its second-lowest ever, further reasons to shun the
greenback.
The dollar index against a basket of major currencies USD=
last stood at 92.864, close to a two-year low.
U.S. Republicans and Democrats have so far failed to reach
an agreement on the cost of fiscal stimulus measures that many
investors say is necessary to prevent the economy form losing
more momentum. Spot gold XAU= , another asset sought during times of
heightened uncertainty, rose to a record high early in Asian
trading, another sign of the dollar's woes.
Some investors are also worried about increasingly frayed
Sino-U.S. relations.
U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday issued an executive
order banning transactions with ByteDance, the Chinese company
that owns the video-sharing app TikTok, saying the app is a
threat to national security. Trump also said he will ban transactions with Chinese firm
Tencent Holdings Ltd 0700.HK , which owns the WeChat messaging
app.
The bans will start in 45 days and mark an escalation of a
row over China's ambitions in the technology sector.
The yuan took the news in its stride, holding steady at
6.9568 per dollar CNY=CFXS , but speculation about retaliation
from Beijing could hurt risk sentiment further.
The Antipodean currencies benefited from the broad-based
weakness in the greenback.
The Australian dollar AUD=D3 traded at $0.72223, close to
the highest in one-and-a-half years, while the New Zealand
dollar NZD=D3 bought $0.6681, which is near its strongest
since January.

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