By Senad Karaahmetovic
Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) stock could underperform going forward as iPhone sales are likely to come in below analyst estimates, according to Lightshed Partners analysts.
They slashed their rating on AAPL stock to Sell from Neutral with a price target of $120 per share, implying a 20% downside risk.
"Our estimates are below consensus on a more conservative outlook for iPhone sales and moderating growth expectations in Services revenue," the analysts wrote in a client note.
They also believe that the lengthening of the smartphone replacement cycle will continue into the calendar 2024. This is due to several reasons, including:
- Phone subsidies by wireless operators that are flat to down in 2023 and down in 2024;
- Longer terms on phone payment plans;
- Increased use of eSIM to activate a new customer on an existing phone;
- No new meaningful applications that drive interest in 5G; and
- Potential economic weakness
Lightshed's iPhone revenue estimates are $6 billion and $17B below consensus for fiscal 2023 and 2024, respectively.
"We believe there is increased risk to iPhone sales in China due to retaliation stemming from a worsening relationship between the US and Chinese governments."
Apple shares trade flat in pre-market Friday.