Investing.com -- Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS) analysts said Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL) remains their top pick heading into 2025, citing three key catalysts driving their bullish outlook.
The first catalyst is the anticipated impact of Apple Intelligence, the company’s AI-driven initiative, on iPhone replacement cycles. While near-term iPhone demand is subdued, Morgan Stanley highlights that broader availability of Apple Intelligence starting in fiscal 2025 could drive a surge in demand.
The Wall Street firm forecasts iPhone shipments to rise 12% year-over-year to 258 million units in fiscal 2026, propelled by features like upgraded Siri, AI image tools, and ChatGPT integration. The forecast implies “a relatively moderate replacement cycle contraction of just 0.3 years off an all-time replacement cycle high of ~5 years,” analysts led by Erik W. Woodring said.
Second, Apple’s services segment is projected to sustain double-digit growth, driven by a combination of pricing power, expanding adoption, and new offerings.
Morgan Stanley expects services revenue to grow at an 11.4% compound annual growth rate through fiscal 2027, outpacing consensus estimates.
Analysts note that less than 50% of Apple’s user base currently pays for services. This, combined with a mid-single-digit (MSD) annual growth in the installed base and pricing power could boost annual Services growth by 6 percentage points.
Furthermore, the potential introduction of paid AI services could contribute $7-14 billion in incremental Services revenue by fiscal 2027.
Finally, Morgan Stanley expects Apple’s gross margins to expand steadily over the next three years, benefiting from a favorable mix shift, cost efficiencies, and faster-growing services revenue.
While memory costs have risen, the firm points to a likely downcycle in 2025 as “an emerging cyclical tailwind in 2025.” Woodring and his team estimate annual gross margin expansion of 50 basis points through fiscal 2027.
Apple shares (NASDAQ:AAPL) have outperformed the S&P 500 by 10 points over the past month, reaching all-time highs.
While near-term demand is mixed, with strong Services growth but muted iPhone/Product performance due to limited Apple Intelligence availability, Morgan Stanley remains bullish. The firm expects fundamentals to accelerate in fiscal 2026, driving over $8.50 in earnings and supporting its $273 price target.