* Long bets on Singapore dollar for first time since April
* Bullish bets highest for Thai baht
* Investors scale back short bets on yuan, won
By Aby Jose Koilparambil
Oct 24 (Reuters) - Sentiment towards most Asian currencies
picked up in the past two weeks, a Reuters poll showed, amid
positive signals that trade tensions between the United States
and China waning.
Hopes of a resolution gained momentum after U.S. President
Donald Trump said a deal could be signed by the time
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meetings take place in
Chile in mid November. U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer tempered the
expectations, saying that the administration was aiming to
finalise a deal on the first phase of the agreement in time for
the APEC meetings.
Tit-for-tat tariffs imposed by the world's two biggest
economies on each other's goods have roiled financial markets
for more than a year now and fuelled worries about an economic
downturn, with the International Monetary Fund forecasting
global growth to weaken to 3% in 2019, the slowest pace in a
decade.
"The rationale behind the trend (of recent strengthening in
regional currencies and prospective further firmness) is the
de-escalation of China-U.S. trade tensions to some extent," said
Mitul Kotecha, senior emerging markets strategist at TD
Securities.
The dollar has come under significant pressure in recent
times and that has turned beneficial for the emerging market
currencies, Kotecha said.
Investors turned bullish on the Singapore dollar SGD=D3
for the first time since April end, and switched to long
positions on the Philippine peso PHP=PDSP since early August.
Bullish bets were back on Indonesia's rupiah IDR=ID as
well, after going short in the previous two polls.
Underpinning the broader positive sentiment, investors
scaled back short positions on the Chinese yuan CNY=CFXS , the
Korean won KRW=KFTC , the Indian rupee INR=IN and the
Malaysian ringgit MYR=MY , according to a Reuters poll of 15
respondents.
Short bets on the yuan and the Indian rupee are at their
lowest since mid July and mid August respectively, while bearish
bets on the won are at the weakest level since switching from
long positions in January.
"The central banks (in Asia) keep on easing policy and with
inflation remaining low, the inflows into the region will
strengthen and that will benefit the currencies," Kotecha added.
On Thursday, Indonesia's central bank cut its benchmark rate
for a fourth time since July, as it seeks to spur growth in an
economy that is likely to slow this year.
A couple of weeks back, Singapore's central bank eased
monetary policy for the first time in three years, as widely
expected, while South Korea has kept the door open and Malaysia
too might opt for another cut.
Other factors have also contributed to the positive
sentiment, with the rupiah slated to appreciate further on
expectations of continued fiscal discipline after Indonesian
Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati retained her position in
the new cabinet. The Reuters survey is focused on what analysts believe are
the current market positions in nine Asian emerging market
currencies: the yuan, the won, the Singapore dollar, the rupiah,
the Taiwan dollar TWD=TP , the Indian rupee, the Philippine
peso, the Malaysian ringgit and the Thai baht TBH=TH .
The poll uses estimates of net long or short positions on a
scale of minus 3 to plus 3.
A score of plus 3 indicates the market is significantly long
on U.S. dollars. The figures included positions held through
non-deliverable forwards (NDFs).
The survey findings ASIAPOSN are provided below (positions
in U.S. dollar versus each currency):
DDMM CNY KRW {{2034|SGD IDIDR TWD INR MYR PHP THB
24/10 0.25 0.07 -0.06 -0.22 -0.56 0.31 0.45 -0.29 -1.13
10/10 0.82 0.88 0.59 0.08 -0.06 0.39 0.55 0.20 -0.80
26/9 0.84 0.91 0.51 0.01 -0.05 0.34 0.56 0.34 -0.77
12/9 0.95 1.13 0.63 -0.12 0.28 0.78 0.37 0.39 -0.52
29/8 1.51 1.68 1.17 0.45 0.78 0.85 0.81 0.60 -0.73
15/8 1.09 1.41 0.99 0.33 0.47 0.17 0.59 0.16 -0.68
01/8 0.37 1.04 0.65 -0.33 0.46 -0.49 -0.07 -0.45 -0.85
18/7 0.20 0.88 0.10 -0.46 0.36 -0.35 0.02 -0.38 -1.00
4/7 0.55 1.02 0.15 0.03 0.54 -0.15 0.67 -0.19 -1.19
20/6 1.21 1.33 0.78 0.41 1.21 0.13 1.10 0.45 -0.53