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FOREX-Investors seek dollars as global virus spread widens

Published 02/24/2020, 01:58 PM
Updated 02/24/2020, 02:00 PM
© Reuters.  FOREX-Investors seek dollars as global virus spread widens
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* Italy, S. Korea, Iran new frontiers in coronavirus spread
* Aussie, kiwi slide as outbreak's pace sparks new fears
* Yen left behind as gold and bonds rally
* Graphic: World FX rates in 2020 https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E

By Tom Westbrook
SINGAPORE, Feb 24 (Reuters) - Asian currencies slid on
Monday as the rapid spread of the coronavirus outside China
drove fears of a pandemic and sent investors to the safety of
gold, dollars and the Swiss franc.
Italy, South Korea and Iran posted sharp rises in infections
over the weekend. South Korea now has more than 760 cases, Italy
more than 150 and Iran 43 cases. The World Health Organization is now worried about the
growing number of cases that have no clear link to the epicentre
of the outbreak in China. "The omens are not particularly good today," said Ray
Attrill, head of FX strategy at National Australia Bank in
Sydney. "The presumption was that we would see intermediate
supply chains quickly reconnected and I think the market's had
to go through a period of questioning that logic."
The Chinese, Australian and New Zealand currencies were on
the back foot and emerging market currencies were pounded.
The Aussie carved a fresh 11-year low in early trade and the
kiwi shed half a percent, before slightly recovering - along
with the yuan - with news of four Chinese provinces lowering
emergency restrictions.
That easing provided little support elsewhere, however, with
the Korean won KRW= plunging nearly 1% to a six-month low.
Indonesia's rupiah, so far shielded by its relative independence
from Chinese trade, tracked the broader selloff in emerging
markets, dropping 1%. EMRG/FRX
Political turmoil in Malaysia added pressure to the ringgit
MYR= and sent it 0.7% lower to its weakest since September.
Yet risk aversion, which also saw stocks tumble and gold and
bonds rise, offered surprisingly little support to the yen
JPY= . MKTS/GLOB
After partially recovering last week's drop on Friday, it
traded flat at 111.55 per dollar as Asian investors discount its
safety value owing to Japan's virus exposure.
"The market reaction to the coronavirus appears to be
evolving, beginning to differentiate the currencies vulnerable
to the virus from the rest," Barclays analysts said in a note.
"U.S. dollar assets provide relative attractiveness," they
wrote. "In fact, our economists forecast no impact on U.S.
growth from Covid-19, with relatively few domestic incidents and
a low dependency on China's economy."
Against a basket of currencies =USD , the dollar crept back
toward an almost three-year peak touched last week, before soft
economic data knocked it from its perch on Friday. It was firmer against the euro at $1.0820 EUR= and pound
at $1.2942 GBP= , while the Swiss franc soaked up some
safe-haven flows too and rose 0.3% even with the dollar's
strength. Against the euro, the franc stands at a
four-and-a-half year high EURCHF=R .
The coronavirus has killed more than 2,400 people in China,
which also accounts for 98% of global diagnoses.
However, the weekend's spread beyond China appears to have
caught authorities off-guard.
Italy has halted the carnival of Venice, shut schools, and
sealed off affected towns across its wealthy north, but is
struggling to find out how and where the virus' spread began.
South Korea is on high alert and battling to stem steep
rises in infections - all adding to the already massive
disruption to the world's economy. "From here on, a lot will depend on how fast China can
resume production and contain negative implications for supply
chains and global economic growth," said Stephen Innes, Asia
Pacific Market Strategist at AxiCorp.

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