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FOREX-Dollar slips as optimism holds ahead of Fed

Published 04/29/2020, 09:00 AM
Updated 04/29/2020, 09:10 AM
© Reuters.
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* Aussie, kiwi edge higher to multi-week peaks
* Fed meeting and 1830 GMT press conference eyed
* Graphic: World FX rates in 2020 https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E

By Tom Westbrook
SINGAPORE, April 29 (Reuters) - The dollar was on the back
foot on Wednesday as the slowing spread of the coronavirus and
moves to re-open economies supported the investor mood, ahead of
major central bank meetings.
The risk-sensitive Australia dollar AUD=D3 rose 0.4% to
$0.6517 to track toward a sixth straight session of gains, and
the currency's best month in four years. The New Zealand dollar
NZD=D3 rose 0.6% to $0.6093, its highest in a week. AUD/
But gains were capped by caution and other majors steady as
markets look to the U.S. Federal Reserve, which meets on
Wednesday, and the European Central Bank, which meets on
Thursday, for guidance. MKTS/GLOB
Investors will be watching to see if the U.S. central bank
gives any clues on its future policy path after it responded to
the economic devastation of the COVID-19 pandemic by slashing
rates, buying bonds and backstopping credit markets.
"There's no expectation the Fed will change policy," said
Joe Capurso, FX analyst at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia in
February.
"The market will definitely be very keen on knowing what the
(economic forecast) numbers are, or at least qualitatively how
deep and how long this might go on."
The Fed is due to issue a statement at 1800 GMT, followed by
a press conference with chairman Jerome Powell at 1830 GMT.
The U.S. dollar was steady against a basket of currencies at
99.837 =USD , and slipped a fraction against the rangebound
euro, yen and pound.
The dollar sat near a six-week low against the yen at 106.70
yen JPY= per dollar. A pound GBP= bought $1.2441 and a euro
EUR= $1.0835.
Cases of COVID-19, the respiratory illness caused by the
virus, topped 1 million in the United States overnight but
investor focus is now increasingly on plans to relax
restrictions and restore a battered economy. U.S. consumer confidence slumped to a six-year low this
month, data showed overnight. Markets are bracing for quarterly
GDP, published at 1230 GMT, which is expected to show a 4%
contraction. Despite the gloom, markets have almost solely focused on the
positives over the past week, as seen in the performance of the
Australian dollar, a risk-sensitive currency.
As Spain, France, New Zealand, Australia, Italy and Canada
move cautiously toward reopening their economies, the Aussie has
soared - rising some 6% on the month and 18% from March's
17-year low.
"This is quite extraordinary," said National Australia
Bank's head of FX strategy, Ray Attrill.
"It didn't underperform the G10 pack by nearly as much in
March, and does leave us a little cautious about the near-term
outlook," he said.
The bank revised up its year-end forecast for the Aussie to
$0.6750, but expects it to fall to $0.6200 at the end of the
current quarter.

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