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EM ASIA FX-Most Asian currencies rangebound as oil crash keeps sentiment in check

Published 04/22/2020, 03:00 PM
© Reuters.
USD/SGD
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USD/IDR
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* Oil price rout could hurt Indonesia's fiscal position -
analyst
* S. Korean won drops for 3rd session; Q1 GDP due on
Thursday
* Malaysia cenbank to cut policy rates by 75bp this year -
GS
analyst

(Adds text, updates prices)
By Anushka Trivedi
April 22 (Reuters) - Most Asian currencies moved in a narrow
range on Wednesday as weak crude prices gave regional importers
a chance to stock up supply, although worries persisted over
frail risk sentiment due to oil crash and coronavirus-led
uncertainties.
Meanwhile, the relatively risk-sensitive Indonesian rupiah
IDR= eased as much as 1% on worries the biggest oil producing
nation in Southeast Asia would see a shortfall in crude revenue
this year due to lower prices.
"This raises some concerns over the country's fiscal
position, driving bond outflows and attendant softening in the
rupiah," Wei-Liang Chang, a macro strategist at DBS Bank, said.
Softer prices would also deal a blow to Indonesia's recent
efforts to boost earnings from the energy sector after steady
decline in output and revenue contribution over the past decade.
This week has had some of the most volatile days in the
history of oil trading, with prices for U.S. crude turning
negative as the coronavirus outbreak destroyed demand, while
inventories swelled and storage space was hard to find.
Even as sentiment remained weak, as investors mulled that
demand worries could last for several months, most other
currencies in Asia ticked up on expectations persistent downward
pressure on oil prices could help shore up trade balances, Chang
added.
Currencies of India INR=IN , Philippines PHP=PH and
Singapore SGD= - all net oil-importing nations - gained
between 0.1% and 0.2%.
The Chinese yuan CNY=CFXS firmed 0.1%.
The Malaysian ringgit MYR=MY weakened 0.1% to 4.395
against the dollar, a near 4-week low.
Data showed Malaysia's March consumer prices fell for the
first time in more than a year, driven largely by lower prices
of retail fuel. Amid declining domestic demand, negative growth and
inflation outlook on plunging oil prices, Bank Negara Malaysia
is expected to cut policy rates by another 75 basis points this
year, Goldman Sachs analysts wrote.

SOUTH KOREAN WON
The South Korean won KRW=KFTC continued its descent into a
third session, sliding 0.5% versus the dollar, a day before
first-quarter GDP figures were due.
South Korea's economy likely shrank at its sharpest pace
since 2008 in the January-March period as the coronavirus crisis
ravaged business activity and global demand, a Reuters poll
showed. The trade-reliant nation's situation is only expected to
worsen as the "problem of inventory shortage among manufacturers
may become more acute in the second-quarter amid production
disruption elsewhere," Mizuho bank analysts said in a note.
The won also came under pressure this week amid a steep fall
in 20-day April exports and speculation sparked by media reports
that North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un was gravely ill after a
surgery. following table shows rates for Asian currencies against
the dollar at 0558 GMT.

CURRENCIES VS U.S. DOLLAR
Currency Latest bid Previous day Pct Move
Japan yen 107.580 107.76 +0.17
Sing dlr 1.429 1.4313 +0.17
Taiwan dlr 30.093 30.102 +0.03
Korean won 1236.300 1229.7 -0.53
Baht 32.480 32.47 -0.03
Peso 50.770 50.88 +0.22
Rupiah 15462.000 15400 -0.40
Rupee 76.745 76.84 +0.12
Ringgit 4.395 4.393 -0.05
Yuan 7.084 7.0925 +0.12

Change so far in 2020
Currency Latest bid End 2019 Pct Move
Japan yen 107.580 108.61 +0.96
Sing dlr 1.429 1.3444 -5.91
Taiwan dlr 30.093 30.106 +0.04
Korean won 1236.300 1156.40 -6.46
Baht 32.480 29.91 -7.91
Peso 50.770 50.65 -0.24
Rupiah 15462.000 13880 -10.23
Rupee 76.745 71.38 -6.99
Ringgit 4.395 4.0890 -6.96
Yuan 7.084 6.9632 -1.71

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