On Tuesday, Scotiabank updated its valuation for FirstService Corp (NASDAQ:FSV) shares, increasing the price target to $200 from $190 while maintaining a Sector Perform rating. The adjustment reflects the anticipated revenue boost from restoration work due to Hurricanes Helene and Milton. The bank's analyst incorporated an additional $50 million in revenues for the fourth quarter of 2024 and $75 million for the first half of 2025.
The revision is based on FirstService's historical performance during hurricane seasons, with notable earnings in the post-storm periods. For instance, following Hurricanes Ian and Fiona, FirstService reported $85 million in revenues in the fourth quarter of 2022 and $110 million in the first half of 2023. The analyst pointed out that while it is premature to estimate the exact damage from the recent hurricanes, past events provide a basis for projecting the company's earnings.
The forecast for FirstService's earnings per share (EPS) has been increased by 2.1% for 2024 and by 5.3% for 2025. This revision is attributed to the expected hurricane-related revenues, which were presumably not factored into the consensus estimates. Consequently, the valuation estimate based on 2025 projected EBITDA has risen by 4% to $561 million.
Since the beginning of Hurricane Milton on October 7, FirstService's stock has seen a 6% increase, outperforming the S&P/TSX Composite Index by five percentage points. Despite this surge, FirstService's year-to-date performance remains 3 percentage points behind the S&P/TSX Composite Index. The analyst anticipates potential near-term gains in the stock price driven by positive earnings revisions.
In other recent news, FirstService Corporation reported a 16% increase in total revenues year-over-year in its second-quarter earnings, largely due to strategic acquisitions. The company's EBITDA also increased by 12% to $132 million. FirstService has also declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.25 per common share.
The company has recently expanded its fire protection services with the acquisitions of Citadel Fire Sprinkler, Inc. and Sentry Fire Protection Co., Inc. Analysts at RBC Capital Markets and Scotiabank have responded positively to the company's financial performance, upgrading their price targets for FirstService to $192 and $190, respectively. These recent developments indicate FirstService's continued financial growth and strategic expansion.
InvestingPro Insights
FirstService Corp's recent stock performance aligns with the InvestingPro data, which shows a strong 13.65% price total return over the past three months. This upward trend is further supported by the company's robust financial metrics. With a market capitalization of $8.33 billion and revenue of $4.65 billion over the last twelve months as of Q2 2024, FirstService demonstrates significant market presence.
The company's revenue growth of 12.94% over the same period underscores its expanding business operations, which could be further bolstered by the anticipated hurricane-related restoration work. This growth trajectory is in line with the InvestingPro Tip indicating that analysts expect sales growth in the current year.
Moreover, FirstService's dividend history is noteworthy. An InvestingPro Tip reveals that the company has raised its dividend for 9 consecutive years, with a current dividend yield of 0.54%. This consistent dividend growth, coupled with the expected increase in revenues, may contribute to the stock's attractiveness for income-focused investors.
For those seeking a more comprehensive analysis, InvestingPro offers 14 additional tips for FirstService Corp, providing deeper insights into the company's financial health and market position.
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