* Developing Asia to contract for the first time since 1962
* China to buck trend as ADB kept its 2020 growth forecast
* Latest projects suggest "L"-shaped recovery for the region
By Karen Lema
MANILA, Sept 15 (Reuters) - The coronavirus pandemic will
cause economic output in "developing Asia" to shrink for the
first time in nearly six decades in 2020 before it bounces back
next year, the Asian Development Development Bank said on
Tuesday.
"Developing Asia", which groups 45 countries in
Asia-Pacific, is expected to contract 0.7% this year, the ADB
said, forecasting the first negative quarterly figure since
1962. The ADB's previous forecast in June had reckoned on 0.1%
growth.
For 2021, the region is forecast to recover and grow 6.8%,
still below pre-COVID-19 predictions, the ADB said in an update
of its Asian Development Outlook report.
The updated forecasts show the damage brought by the
pandemic was greater than previously thought, with about
three-quarters of the region's economies forecast to slump this
year.
"Most economies in the Asia and Pacific region can expect
difficult growth path for the rest of 2020," ADB Chief Economist
Yasuyuki Sawada said in a statement.
"The economic threat posed by the COVID-19 pandemic remains
potent, as extended first waves or recurring outbreaks could
prompt further containment measures," Sawada said.
While the pandemic remains the biggest downside risk to the
region's outlook, Sawada said in a separate media briefing
"worsening geopolitical tensions" that include the trade and
tech war between U.S. and Beijing, could also dent growth.
China, where the coronavirus surfaced in December, is seen
bucking the trend as the ADB kept its 2020 growth forecast at
1.8%. The world's second largest economy is expected to rebound
strongly to 7.7% in 2021, the ADB said.
India's economy is expected to contract 9.0% this year, ADB
said, a far worse outcome than the 4.0% contraction previously
forecast, ADB said. But it also expected India to bounce back
with 8.0% growth next year.
As the pandemic took a toll on Southeast Asian economies,
the sub-region is projected to suffer a 3.8% slump this year,
before picking up next year.
Latest forecasts suggest a more protracted "L" shaped
recovery for "developing Asia", Sawada said.
Depressed demand and lower oil prices allowed the ADB to
keep its inflation forecast for developing Asia at 2.9%, and it
is predicted to slow further to 2.3% in 2021.
GDP GROWTH
2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2021
DEC APR JUNE SEPT APR JUNE SEPT
Central 4.9 4.5 2.8 -0.5 -2.1 4.2 4.2 3.9
Asia
East Asia 5.4 5.2 2.0 1.3 1.3 6.5 6.8 7.0
China 6.1 5.8 2.3 1.8 1.8 7.3 7.4 7.7
South Asia 4.3 6.1 4.1 -3.0 -6.8 6.0 4.9 7.1
India 4.2 6.5 4.0 -4.0 -9.0 6.2 5.0 8.0
SEast Asia 4.3 4.7 1.0 -2.7 -3.8 4.7 5.2 5.5
Indonesia 5.0 5.2 2.5 -1.0 -1.0 5.0 5.3 5.3
Malaysia 4.3 4.7 0.5 -4.0 -5.0 5.5 6.5 6.5
Myanmar 6.8 n/a 4.2 1.8 1.8 6.8 6.0 6.0
Philippines 6.0 6.2 2.0 -3.8 -7.3 6.5 6.5 6.5
Singapore 0.7 1.2 0.2 -6.0 -6.2 2.0 3.2 4.5
Thailand 2.4 3.0 -4.8 -6.5 -8.0 2.5 3.5 4.5
Vietnam 7.0 6.8 4.8 4.1 1.8 6.8 6.8 6.3
The Pacific 3.7 2.5 -0.3 -4.3 -6.1 2.7 1.6 1.3
Developing 5.1 5.2 2.2 0.1 -0.7 6.2 6.2 6.8
Asia
INFLATION
2019 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2021
DEC APR JUNE SEPT APR JUNE SEPT
Central 7.5 7.3 7.6 8.0 8.3 6.3 6.6 6.6
Asia
East Asia 2.6 2.7 3.2 2.9 2.6 1.8 1.8 1.7
China 2.9 3.0 3.6 3.3 3.0 1.9 1.9 1.8
South Asia 5.0 4.8 4.1 4.0 5.2 4.4 4.5 4.5
India 4.8 3.8 3.0 3.0 4.5 3.8 4.0 4.0
SEast Asia 2.1 2.6 1.9 1.0 1.0 2.2 2.3 2.3
Indonesia 2.8 3.3 3.0 2.0 2.0 2.8 2.8 2.8
Malaysia 0.7 2.0 1.0 -1.5 -1.5 1.3 2.5 2.0
Myanmar 8.6 n/a 7.5 6.0 6.0 7.5 6.0 6.0
Philippines 2.5 3.0 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.6
Singapore 0.6 0.9 0.7 -0.2 -0.3 1.3 0.8 1.0
Thailand 0.7 1 -0.9 -1.3 -1.6 0.4 0.7 0.8
Vietnam 2.8 3.5 3.3 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.5
The Pacific 3.0 3.3 2.7 2.9 2.8 3.8 3.8 3.1
Developing 2.9 3.1 3.2 2.9 2.9 2.3 2.4 2.3
Asia