Citi analysts weighed in on the crypto space as they argue that 2022 marked the likely peak or trough of the recent crypto winter.
On the other hand, 2023 brought regulatory optimism, leading to massive gains. The rally, however, was not linear, and gains were unevenly distributed.
“Crypto’s correlation with equities has fallen sharply from strongly positive levels, while the crypto-gold correlation has turned quite negative,” analysts said.
The anticipation of spot ETF approval fueled a surge in Bitcoin dominance and ETP inflows. Macro correlations shifted, with uncertainties surrounding global growth, inflation, and monetary policy.
Despite regulatory optimism, user adoption has been modest, Citi analysts note, which is seen as a necessity for crypto to mature as an asset class.
Analysts also reflected on the question – How much crypto to HODL?
“Black-Litterman analysis shows 8-15% expected portfolio returns justify a 1-5% BTC allocation. BTC and ETH have similar macro risk exposures, though may diverge in long-term given differing use cases. Volatility targeting and price-based filters are useful for managing risk,” the analysts said.
Bitcoin is trading in the low $41,000s, up nearly 150% on the year.