* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh
* World stocks enjoy vintage H1 https://tmsnrt.rs/2FE0mYC
* Global markets in H1 https://tmsnrt.rs/2FEK8yw
By Marc Jones
LONDON, June 28 (Reuters) - What a six months for financial
markets. Global equities have piled on $8 trillion, bonds are on
fire, oil prices have surged by almost a quarter and a Greek
bank is one of the world's best performing stocks.
Everything added together it may well be the best first half
of a year ever and one that not even the most wily investor
would have predicted after the dire end to 2018 and what has
happened since.
The world's two top economies are slugging it out in a
full-blown trade war and the recession warning klaxons are
blaring, but still the performance numbers and milestones are
astonishing.
The $8 trillion surge in global stocks is the result of a
near 15% leap in MSCI's world index .MIWD00000PUS . That is
challenging the dot.com boom days of 1997 as the best H1 in its
near 40-year history.
Wall Street is up 18%, Europe 13% and China has jumped 20%,
which is a lot of what it lost year even factoring in it has
given back 5% since the trade tensions erupted again in early
May.
Oil has raced almost 25% higher following its best first
quarter since 2009. That has helped Russia's rouble top the
currency charts and though industrial metals have buckled badly
in Q2, safe-haven gold is now scaling a six-year high.
"It has been really impressive," said Swiss fund managers
Pictet's chief strategist Luca Paolini about the rebound from
last year's beating. "All sectors, all markets, all asset
classes are in positive territory and that is rather unusual."
A mirror image of 2018 when almost everything fell? Perhaps.
But there have been two important drivers.
One was China showing it was serious about monetary and
fiscal stimulus for its $14 trillion economy. The second of
course has been the screeching change of direction by the
Federal Reserve which suddenly looks set to cut U.S. interest
rates for the first time since the financial crisis.
It has lit a fire under bond markets which have gone off
like a rocket.
U.S. Treasuries, the world's benchmark government IOUs, have
made a whopping 7 percent as their yields have fallen almost 70
basis points this year. That followed a 37 basis point fall the
last quarter of 2018, whereas in the five quarters prior to that
they had consistently risen.
German Bunds - Europe's go-to safe asset - have had their
best H1 in two years, making roughly 5.5% as the European
Central Bank has reversed course too. The yield on 10-year debt
dropped below zero percent for the first time since 2016 in
March and has since scored record lows.
MY BIG FAT GREEK RALLY
A statistic likely to make most jaws drop is that Greek
banks -- remember all that euro debt crisis and capital controls
stuff a few years back -- have been some of the world's best
performing stocks this year.
The country's biggest lender Piraeus Bank BOPr.AT is up
250% and the smaller Attica Bank BOAr.AT is up 343%. Athens
has also been Europe's best bourse this year, though it all
trails the 550% gain vegan darling Beyond Meat BTND.O has
cooked up since its May stock market floatation.
Cryptoassets are back in vogue too with Bitcoin up 220%
after its 2018 fall from grace and despite almost daily Brexit
chaos and the loss of another prime minister, UK Gilts have
returned 4.5%.
More risky high-yield debt, local-currency emerging market
bonds and corporate debt have all brought in between 8%-9% and
currency markets have been on the turn too.
"It is very unusual to see this breadth of strength," said
HSBC Asset Management's chief global strategist, Joseph Little.
"The question is, has it been too fast and too furious. It's a
very good question."
The Fed's pirouette means the dollar index .DXY is about
to experience its first quarterly loss in over a year, with the
yen up over 2.5% and the euro EUR= now back in the black
having had its weakest Q1 since 2015.
The oil rally means the Canadian dollar -- up 4% -- and
Norwegian crown -- up 1.5% -- have also done well, but as usual
the wilder swings have been in emerging markets.
Argentina's peso ARS= and Turkey's lira TRY= , 2018's
punchbags, have taken another beating though it was mainly
earlier in the year when worries about both countries' political
and economic trajectories started to bite again.
At the other end of the spectrum, the Russian rouble,
another big petrocurrency, is up 10.5%. Egypt's pound EGP= and
the Thai baht THB= are 7.2% and 5.2% higher, while Mexico's
peso MXN= is now only 2% better off having been sapped by the
recent run in with Donald Trump over migrants breaking the
border.
FANGS VERY MUCH
Wall Street's rally has left the S&P 500 .SPX and Nasdaq
.IXIC enjoying the view at record highs with the so-called
FANG tech stocks providing much of the altitude again.
Facebook FB.O has surged 44%, Amazon AMZN.O 27 percent,
and streaming giant Netflix NFLX.O has soared more than 38%.
Despite the fierce tensions with China over Huawei, the tech
sector .SPLRCT still tops the S&P 500 too and Microsoft
MSFT.O and Cisco are the top two performers on the Dow Jones
.DJI having both leapt over 30%.
In contrast, China's tech sector .CSIINT is now up 28%
year-to-date compared to 46% at the end of Q1 while online
behemoth Alibaba BABA.K has handed back 5% of the 30% it had
made.
"The next couple of weeks will set the tone for the second
half. If trade talks momentum is gained, it would be hugely
positive for risk assets," Stefan Hofer, chief investment
officer, LGT Bank Asia said.
"This is the most important (period) since the Global
Financial Crisis. I can't emphasise that enough."
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World stocks straining for best start to a year ever https://tmsnrt.rs/2FE0mYC
European markets in H1, Greece has smashed it https://tmsnrt.rs/2FEGg0s
Global FX in 2018, Russia's rouble tops the charts https://tmsnrt.rs/2FEJEII
Bond never dies https://tmsnrt.rs/2FFgN79
Global markets in H1 https://tmsnrt.rs/2FEK8yw
EM-Surging markets https://tmsnrt.rs/2Fyfh6T
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