By Geoffrey Smith
Investing.com -- Gold came roaring back on Monday as the Federal Reserve’s latest measures to soothe markets failed to stop investors pulling their money from risk assets.
In a grim consolation, havens such as gold and government bonds did at least manage to restore their traditional inverse relationship with risk assets, rising as equities decided to take advantage of the "Fed put" with brutal force.
By 12:25 PM ET (1625 GMT), gold futures for delivery on the Comex exchange were up 4.7% at $1,554.80 a troy ounce, while spot gold was up 3.3% at $1,548.15 an ounce.
The rally was driven by increasingly apocalyptic forecasts for the U.S. economy from banks and policymakers.
On Sunday, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard had predicted that the U.S. economy could shrink by an annualized 50% in the second quarter, while the jobless rate could rise to as high as 30%.
Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) analyst Jan Hatzius said his bank estimates that around 2.25 million Americans filed for jobless benefits last week – a number that illustrates the crucial importance of Congress passing a bill that cushions the blow of what ought, at least, to be only a temporary spell of unemployment for many. Official data for initial jobless claims are due on Thursday at 8:30 AM ET (1230 GMT).
That backdrop is strengthening the belief that real interest rates will remain at historic lows for longer, supporting the price of gold. The latest evidence of that came in the form of an unlimited commitment from the Fed to buy Treasury and agency debt to support the economy, and to backstop businesses and consumers with a new $300 billion facility capitalized by the Treasury with $30 billion.
The rally was only restrained by the across-the-board gains for the dollar itself. Against a background of worldwide demands for dollars, it came within a whisker of a new 18-year high against developed currencies and rampaged higher against most emerging currencies, notably the Indonesian rupiah. That said, demand at the European Central Bank’s weekly dollar swap auction fell sharply from last week’s operation.
Elsewhere in precious metals, silver futures rose 0.5% to $12.92 an ounce, while platinum futures rose 0.3% to $624.10 - albeit in choppy trading dominated by the fear of a collapse in automotive-sector demand.
Copper futures fell 3.8% to $2.08 a pound, but didn’t seriously threaten the lows of last week.