On Monday, H.C. Wainwright reaffirmed a Buy rating and a $26.00 price target on Alumis Inc (NASDAQ: ALMS), following recent developments in the psoriatic arthritis (PsA) treatment market.
Analysts at H.C. Wainwright focused on the impact of Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE:BMY)'s positive Phase 3 data for its TYK2 inhibitor, Sotyktu, on Alumis's prospects.
Bristol-Myers Squibb reported last week that both pivotal trials of Sotyktu in PsA met the primary endpoint, which is a 20% improvement in symptoms compared to placebo at Week 16, according to the American College of Rheumatology response criteria (ACR20). While the next steps for Sotyktu are anticipated, it is expected to be the first TYK2 agent approved for PsA.
Despite this progress for Sotyktu, H.C. Wainwright analysts believe that Alumis's ESK-001 has a highly superior profile with the potential to surpass the market share of current TYK2 inhibitors and expand the overall TYK2 inhibitor commercial market. The current commercial availability of Sotyktu is seen as paving the way for the commercial success of ESK-001.
Bristol has previously projected that Sotyktu could achieve peak annual sales of over $4 billion, with other reports estimating up to $3 billion. However, H.C. Wainwright suggests that these figures may be optimistic given Sotyktu's modest uptake so far. Nonetheless, the firm is confident in the long-term potential of ESK-001, forecasting peak worldwide sales of $3.9 billion by 2040 for the drug.
The positive developments around Sotyktu are considered to mitigate risks associated with ESK-001's pivotal data, regulatory approval, and commercial uptake.
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