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GMS shares downgraded to Neutral, tepid demand outlook weighs on sentiment

EditorAhmed Abdulazez Abdulkadir
Published 11/26/2024, 08:56 PM
GMS
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On Tuesday, DA Davidson adjusted its stance on GMS Inc . (NYSE: NYSE:GMS), downgrading the stock from Buy to Neutral and setting a price target of $97.00. The firm expressed concerns over the current demand environment and potential issues regarding wallboard pricing and costs that could impact the company's near-term gross margins. Additionally, the analyst noted that the current valuation of GMS shares presents a less appealing risk/reward balance at their present levels.

The analyst's caution is partly due to the anticipated guidance for the upcoming third fiscal quarter of 2025 (F3Q25), where DA Davidson's estimates are at the lower end of the consensus. This conservative outlook comes as the company prepares to release its second fiscal quarter 2025 (F2Q25) financial results next week.

GMS's stock performance was also a factor in the downgrade, as shares have surpassed the firm's previous target price, currently trading at a multiple of 8.5 to 9.0 times forward EBITDA. This valuation led DA Davidson to adopt a more reserved position on the stock.

The downgrade reflects a shift in the firm's perspective, as the analyst highlighted a combination of market conditions and company-specific financial metrics that could pose risks to investors. With the upcoming financial report, the market will gain further insight into GMS's performance and whether the concerns raised by DA Davidson are reflected in the company's financial outcomes.

In other recent news, GMS Inc. reported mixed Q1 results, with a 2.8% increase in net sales to $1.45 billion, but a decline in net income to $57.2 million. Loop Capital adjusted its financial outlook for GMS, lowering EBITDA forecasts for the second quarter of fiscal year 2025 and the full fiscal year 2025, but increased GMS's price target from $85.00 to $93.00, maintaining a Hold rating on the stock. The firm's decision to raise the price target reflects higher market multiples across the building products sector. Despite these adjustments, Loop Capital warns of potential near-term downside risks to earnings following the recent improvement in GMS's share price.

In other developments, GMS Inc. shareholders approved board nominees and executive compensation, and Ernst & Young LLP was ratified as the company's independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending April 30, 2025.

Meanwhile, General Motors (NYSE:GM)' autonomous vehicle subsidiary, Cruise, settled with the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) for a $1.5 million fine over a failure to report a serious incident. Cruise also announced plans to initiate supervised testing of up to five autonomous vehicles in California's Bay Area, marking a significant step in their progress.

InvestingPro Insights

Recent data from InvestingPro provides additional context to DA Davidson's downgrade of GMS Inc. The company's stock price has shown significant volatility, with a strong return of 53.79% over the past year and a 15.52% increase in the last month alone. This aligns with DA Davidson's observation that GMS shares have surpassed their previous target price.

InvestingPro Tips highlight that GMS is trading near its 52-week high, with its current price at 98.39% of the peak. This supports the analyst's view that the stock's valuation may present a less appealing risk/reward balance. Additionally, the tip indicating that 9 analysts have revised their earnings downwards for the upcoming period corroborates DA Davidson's cautious stance on near-term performance.

Financially, GMS appears solid with a P/E ratio of 16.96 and revenue of $5.54 billion over the last twelve months. The company's profitability is evident, with an operating income margin of 7.42%. These metrics suggest that while GMS has been performing well, the concerns about future demand and pricing pressures raised by DA Davidson may indeed warrant a more neutral outlook.

For investors seeking a more comprehensive analysis, InvestingPro offers 11 additional tips for GMS, providing a deeper understanding of the company's financial health and market position.

This article was generated with the support of AI and reviewed by an editor. For more information see our T&C.

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