On Friday, B.Riley analysts kept their Buy rating and a $51.00 price target for Arrowhead Pharma (NASDAQ:ARWR), underscoring the stock's potential.
The firm's analysts emphasized Arrowhead's dominance in the siRNA therapeutics market, particularly in cardiovascular-metabolic, pulmonary, and CNS/muscle delivery therapeutic categories.
They pointed out that despite the stock's underperformance over the years, the company's advancements and recent balance sheet improvements, extending the cash runway to 2028, are not reflected in its current equity value.
The analysts highlighted the ongoing regulatory review of Arrowhead's leading program, APOC3 targeting siRNA plozasiran, noting its potential benefits from the recent FDA approval of a similar drug, Tryngolza, by IONS. They believe that Tryngolza's approval, which includes broad patient population coverage and no severe treatment monitoring requirements, could be indicative of a favorable outcome for plozasiran.
The approval of Tryngolza also came with a higher-than-expected price point of $595,000 per patient per year, suggesting possible upside to U.S. product sales estimates for Arrowhead's treatments, assuming effective patient identification and payer coverage. However, they also anticipate potential long-term price adjustments for a larger patient population.
The analysts at B.Riley further mentioned several upcoming catalysts for Arrowhead in FY25 that could significantly impact its enterprise value, currently at $1.4 billion. These catalysts include Phase I readouts for obesity programs ARO-INHBE and ARO-ALK7, initial proof-of-concept safety and target engagement readouts for partnered programs with SRPT on DM1 and DUX4, data from the ARO-RAGE high FeNO asthma cohort, and the fully enrolled Phase III CVOT trial for olpasiran, partnered with AMGN.
They also noted that Arrowhead could receive more than $700 million in milestone payments from AMGN, contingent on the success of the olpasiran trial and NVS' Phase III pelacarsen event-driven outcomes data.
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