James Picerno

If a recession in the US has started or is imminent, the threat has yet to show up in the latest run of nowcasts for third-quarter GDP. That’s no guarantee that the economy will continue expanding,...

Earlier this month I discussed the possibility that the US stock market’s year-to-date performance would slip to second place as Africa shares rallied. Nearly two weeks later, the switch is complete,...

The real estate market has had a rough ride since the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates in March 2022. But as expectations strengthen that the central bank will start cutting next month,...

The economy isn’t always decisive in US presidential elections, except when it is. Think Herbert Hoover in 1932 and George H.W. Bush in 1992. Each lost the presidency to a challenger primarily...

Fixed income as an asset class is looking bullish as Fed Chairman Powell prepares to give a widely anticipated speech this Friday (Aug. 23). The central banker is expected to drop clues about the...

Recent stock market turbulence has left two equity sectors outperforming this year: communications services and utilities, based on set of ETFs through Monday’s close (Aug. 19). The remaining sectors...

US recession risk appeared to ease in the wake of last week’s encouraging updates for retail sales and jobless claims. Will the better-than-expected numbers delay the widely expected rate cut that...

A lot can happen over the course of a week when it comes to the crowd’s fickle sentiment du jour on matters of recession. At this time a week ago the headlines warned that a contraction, if it hadn’t...

The spread between the US 10-year Treasury yield and a ‘fair value’ estimate calculated by CapitalSpectator.com continued to narrow in July. The market rate is still well above the model’s estimate,...

Betting against the US stock market has been a losing trade in relative terms in recent years and from a top-down down perspective it’s not obvious that’s about to change. But carving up the global...