James Picerno

By nearly any measure you cite, US equities are enjoying a stellar run. Despite numerous global risks, investor sentiment for American shares is resilient. The question, as always, is when is it...

Recession talk for the US is on the march again. Although there’s still room for debate on the near-term business-cycle outlook, some indicators are highlighting decelerating growth that could be the...

The US 10-year Treasury yield continues to defy The Capital Spectator’s ‘fair-value’ estimate by trading at a premium to this model, but the relatively wide gap still appears to be a constraint to...

The US stock market’s strong year-to-date gain so far in 2024 has enjoyed wide support among equity sectors. The two glaring downside exceptions: consumer discretionary (NYSE:XLY) and real estate...

Recent economic estimates suggest US growth has slowed compared with previous estimates, but today’s revised GDP nowcast for the second quarter still points to a modest pickup in output over Q1. The...

The sharp drop in Treasury yields in recent days has revived chatter that the worst for the bond market may be over. It’s still early to confidently forecast that scenario, but the odds for recovery...

Here we go again. After yesterday’s news that US job openings fell to a three-year low in April, the data fueled the incentive for the bond market to reassess the view that the Federal Reserve will...

The performance outlook for the Global Market Index (GMI) ticked higher again in May. For the fourth straight month, GMI’s long-term forecast edged up, rising to an annualized 7.1% pace, which is...

Global markets rebounded sharply in May, with the exception of commodities, based on a set of ETF proxies. Otherwise, gains dominated the major asset classes after April’s widespread pummeling. US...

US economic growth rose a modest 1.3% in the first quarter, a softer increase vs. the government’s initial 1.6% estimate. The revised data reflects a sluggish pace of growth and the second straight...