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James Picerno

  • Analysis & Opinion

James Picerno's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of James Picerno's articles, including current analysis & opinion.

Late last year, and into early 2023, the crowd was all in on the inevitability of a US recession starting in the near future. A Bloomberg headline captured the zeitgeist as the new year dawned: “The...
Market sentiment is turning cautious as several risk factors come into focus for the fourth quarter, but for the moment the lofty year-to-date performance premium for US shares relative to the rest of...
The collective wisdom of the bond market for much of this year has been betting that interest rates would soon peak and fall. But those bets appear to be unwinding in the wake of Wednesday’s...
Fixed-income investors looking for interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve are still waiting, but that hasn’t stopped low-rated bonds from posting strong gains in 2023. The upside performance...
It seems like ages ago that the US government flirted with a shutdown, but it was only this past spring when Washington danced on the precipice. A repeat performance is again approaching as political...
The government’s third-quarter economic report appears to be on track to report that US output accelerated to 3%-plus, based on the median estimate via several sources compiled by...
The US 10-year Treasury yield continued to trend higher in August, rising further above CapitalSpectator.com’s “fair-value” estimate, which is based on averaging three models. It’s unclear if the mean...
US consumer inflation rose more than expected in August, but the surprise jump hasn’t persuaded markets to abandon expectations that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at...
Some analysts who favor one or two indicators to forecast US recessions have had a rough year. The reliance on a generally robust predictor may yet prove its worth in the months ahead. But so far the...
Current yields continue to show signs of peaking, based on a broad review of the major asset classes via a set of proxy ETFs. In each of our periodic updates of yields so far this year, the numbers...