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James Picerno

www.CapitalSpectator.com
  • Analysis & Opinion

James Picerno's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of James Picerno's articles, including current analysis & opinion.

The market premium for the US Treasury yield remained mostly unchanged in May vs. a “fair value” estimate. As the 10-year yield continued to trade in a tight range last month, combined with virtually...
There are many indicators to monitor for reading the monetary policy tea leaves, each with its own distinctive set of pros and cons. Here’s one more that’s worth pondering: the unemployment...
Fed Policy Is Still on Hold, but for How Long?
By James Picerno - Jun 10, 2025
A lot of ink has been spilled on the economic and inflation outlook since President Trump shocked markets in April with a dramatic change in US trade policy. But while tariffs have increased and the...
Bitcoin remains a winning asset since President Trump’s tariff announced on Apr. 2 — “Liberation Day,” as he called it. In relative and absolute terms vs. the world’s primary markets, the...
US GDP Still on Track to Rebound in Q2
By James Picerno - Jun 06, 2025
Uncertainty and risk continue to weigh on the outlook for the economy, but the latest nowcasts for the government’s second-quarter GDP report (due on July 30) are still pointing to recovery after...
Mixed Data for May Clouds Outlook for US Economy
By James Picerno - Jun 05, 2025
May is shaping up to a challenging month for reading the macro tea leaves in an effort to gauge how tariffs are affecting the US economy. Tomorrow’s payrolls report from the Labor Department may...
The US stock market has recovered most of its recent losses, and the rebound has left momentum strategies far ahead in the performance horse race for equity factor results this year, based on a set...
The long-run expected total return for the Global Market Index (GMI) ticked higher again in May, edging up to an annualized 7.2% from the 7.0% estimate in the previous month. Today’s estimate is...
US stocks rebounded in May, posting the first monthly gain since January. The strong recovery lifted American shares to the top of the leaderboard for the major asset classes last month, based on a...
The mega-spending bill that the House passed now awaits debate in the Senate. A key issue for markets is how, or if, the legislation will be amended with respect to projections that, if passed, the...