ING Economic and Financial Analysis

The EUR/USD is recovering a little after its mini collapse on Friday. However, further eurozone confidence data this week could still spell trouble and tilt the market towards a 50bp ECB cut in...

Friday's release of softer-than-expected eurozone PMIs have proved the catalyst for EUR/USD to break to the downside of its two-year trading range. Even though a near 7% drop in just two months is an...

A combination of factors are contributing to the strong dollar, and with geopolitical risks on the rise, we believe it may be risky to try and pick a bottom in EUR/USD just yet. Incidentally, PMIs...

FX markets continue to consolidate after recent volatility, but no one wants to unwind their long dollar positions. Equally, the threat of escalation in Ukraine plus more soft European PMI numbers...

Oil prices have been somewhat insulated by the growing tension between Russia and Ukraine. However, natural gas prices have been more sensitive to these developments, while gold, as one would expect,...

The escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict had only a short-lived impact on FX, and safe-haven demand has rapidly faded. The balance of risks is shifting more to the upside for the US dollar, also...

Brent settled flat yesterday despite rising tension between Russia and Ukraine. Developments related to Iran’s nuclear program likely countered some of the geopolitical risk Energy – Iran Counters...

Markets are consolidating after a period of heightened volatility. In focus currently is President-elect Trump’s pick for the influential post of US Treasury Secretary. Given the large US budget...

Oil prices increased yesterday due to supply outages and a weaker US Dollar. Meanwhile, despite Gazprom halting supply to OMV, Russian pipeline gas continues to flow into Europe as usual Energy –...

We are entering a period of calm in US macro news. This means that it’s mostly up to any positioning readjustment to keep the US dollar from rallying further. Growing focus will be on the eurozone...

China’s finance ministry announced last week that it would end its export tax rebate policy for Aluminium, starting 1 December. LME aluminium prices surged as much as 8.5% on Friday following the...

The US dollar remains at risk of positioning-led corrections, but so far macro data and Fed communication have not offered any USD-negative catalyst. Yesterday, Fed Chair Powell emphasised the...

European gas prices are trading at their highest levels since November last year on concerns that some Russian pipeline flows could be disrupted soon. Energy - European Gas Surges, US Gas Falls Most...

Markets were quick to buy US Dollar after a minor correction as US CPI was released yesterday. This move might reflect expectations for the coming year, as a USD-positive policy mix under Trump is...

The main event in sterling (GBP/USD) markets today is a speech by Bank of England’s Catherine Mann, the most hawkish member of the MPC. Markets will be attentive to any comments about the...

As the dust settles after last week’s US election results, global markets are settling into core trades of a firmer US dollar, higher US equities and higher terminal rate from the Fed. Importantly in...