ING Economic and Financial Analysis

The dollar has entered a consolidative phase, but yesterday’s price action gave us a glimpse of what could be more regular price action next year. EUR/USD got a brief lift yesterday from the...

By Benjamin Schroeder and Padhraic GarveyWhile the market is clearly eyeing a change in the rate cycle, 10-year UST yields are still fighting a battle along the 4.5% area, with the deficit-induced...

Oil prices came under pressure yesterday following an increase in US crude oil inventories, while a rebound in US treasury yields would have likely added further pressureEnergy - US Crude Inventories...

The dollar continues to claw back some of Tuesday's losses after US October retail sales suggested that the consumer is still spending. Also helping has been the Senate's support of a stop-gap funding...

By Padhraic Garvey & Benjamin SchroederHow convinced are we that the Fed has peaked? You can never be 100% sure on this, but the odds firmly favor the view that they’re done. That places...

The dollar plummeted yesterday after a softer-than-expected US CPI reading. But we still think a turn in activity data - more than the disinflation story - is needed to take the dollar sustainably...

The dollar risks another correction event today as inflation may slow a bit more than expected, even though core stickiness should prevent a major repricing of rate expectations. EUR/USD might also...

By Benjamin Schroeder and Padhraic GarveyThe tension between markets eyeing a change in the rating cycle discount and central banks pushing back should raise volatility. Today's US CPI can provide the...

The dollar starts the week quietly and is holding onto gains made after Fed Chair Jay Powell served up a reminder that the hiking cycle is still live. For this week, the FX market will be focusing on...

By Padhraic GarveyThe US 10-year auction tailed, but the bond bulls don't seem to care. It looks like the market is playing with a change in the rate cycle discount. It's not illogical, but likely a...

The data calendar remains quiet across developed markets, but we are hearing more from central bankers. Fed speakers have delivered hawkish comments, emphasizing the fight against inflation and...

By Padhraic GarveyAs we hold above 4.5% for the US 10-year, the immediate issue is 10-year and 30-year auctions. Beyond that into next week, prepare for a big drop in US headline inflation. Then...

November and December are normally soft months for the dollar. This year, however, the tailwind from strong US growth and hawkish Fed policy should keep the dollar bid through to year-endFed-Driven...

By Padhraic Garvey and Benjamin SchroederThe Rally In Long-End Rates Extended With the Curve Flattening AcceleratingOverall, we have now seen a drop of close to 30bp in 10-Year and longer yields over...

It seems investors are starting to think that the Fed is done with rate hikes and are now starting to reduce underweight positions in risk assets, including emerging market currencies. This is dollar...

Even though it was a hawkish hold, the Fed's decision to leave rates unchanged for a second meeting in a row has seen interest rate volatility drop and high-yielding currencies start to perform well...