ING Economic and Financial Analysis

The US dollar faces downside risks today as US payrolls should slow and annual benchmark revisions could be significant. That could more than offset some safe-haven flows on the back of souring China...

The Fed is cautious, and so is the Bank of Japan. The ECB seems determined to keep cutting and the Bank of England might be tempted to speed up its rate reduction pace later in the year. The US...

The US dollar remains in corrective mode on the back of this week's tariff news and the drop in 10-year US yields. Tomorrow's US jobs data will have a big say in whether this correction needs to go...

Despite oil prices facing downward pressure yesterday due to a significant drop in US oil inventories, the market has found stronger support this morning as Saudi Arabia raised its official selling...

We observe that key China proxies like AUD have erased their risk premium on the back of a consensus view that Beijing will secure a deal with the US and prevent an escalation in trade tensions. We...

It was a session of two halves for oil yesterday with prices initially weaker on the back of China’s retaliatory tariffs against the US. However, a tougher US stance on Iran saw the market claw back...

Markets are readjusting after Trump’s last-minute deals with Mexico and Canada which delayed tariffs by a month. From now on, markets may well handle tariff threats even more cautiously, but a new...

Oil markets are seeing a correction after Canada and Mexico came to a last-minute deal with the US, which will see tariffs postponed by at least a month Energy – No Change to OPEC+ Output Policy The...

Our assumption in December was that a US-Canada trade war could take USD/CAD to 1.50. That is now a clear possibility. The two key factors for FX are how long US tariffs will stay in place and the...

The Trump administration has surprised FX markets by imposing large tariffs earlier than expected. The US dollar has strengthened sharply on the back of lower global growth expectations and...

Oil prices have rallied on the back of US tariffs imposed on imports from Canada, Mexico and China, while metal and agri commodities have come under pressure Energy – Tariffs on Canadian Energy...

The standoff between Donald Trump and the US Federal Reserve is intensifying. The Fed kept rates on hold this month, much to the US President's displeasure. Our James Knightley looks at where the...

CAD and MXN tumbled yesterday as Trump reiterated that he will impose 25% tariffs on both countries by tomorrow. Whether he delivers on this threat will determine price action for the broader FX...

European gas prices have jumped to their highest level in more than a year. Meanwhile, aluminium rose in yesterday’s trading after reports of the EU proposing a phased ban on imports of Russian...

It's a busy day ahead in FX markets. The highlight should be another 25bp cut from the ECB, but we'll get plenty of fourth-quarter GDP data from the US and Europe. Elsewhere, we think this week's...

Robust activity, a solid jobs market and sticky inflation justify the Fed's decision to hold interest rates steady. The hawkish tilt from officials may in part be a message to President Trump that...