Selling pressure in the crypto market increased due to Trump’s tariff plans and economic data.
Large investors bought 129,000 BTC in March, supporting price stability.
Bitcoin’s movement depends on holding $86,000; a drop could trigger a pullback.
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In the last week of March, selling pressure in the cryptocurrency market increased. This is disrupting the moderate upward trend. As a result, Bitcoin struggled to break through the key resistance level we had been monitoring for recovery and declined instead.
On the last trading day of the week, the main driver of increased selling pressure was the uncertainty surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump’s customs duties, set to take effect on April 2. Investors are also closely watching the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, which will be released today. Given its connection to the Fed’s interest rate policy, markets are approaching it with caution.
Additionally, recent data shows a decline in open positions in futures trading, indicating that investors are becoming more risk-averse. Glassnode data further confirms that short-term investors are driving the sell-offs, contributing to the contraction in futures positions.
Trump’s tariff plans, which sparked strong reactions in global markets, were a key factor in reducing risk appetite throughout March. However, in the second half of the month, buying activity from large investors helped prevent a deeper decline in Bitcoin.
Glassnode data revealed that large investors purchased 129,000 BTC in March, marking the strongest buying wave since August last year. This indicates that Bitcoin has strong demand below the $80,000 level.
Meanwhile, selling pressure on Bitcoin increased, but inflows into Spot Bitcoin ETFs helped limit the decline throughout the week.
Macroeconomic Risks: A Barrier to Recovery
The U.S. government has recently begun cutting spending and adopting more protectionist trade policies. Trump’s decision to impose a 25% tariff on imported automobiles is negatively impacting both global markets and crypto assets.
Today’s release of core PCE inflation data is also crucial as it will influence the Fed’s interest rate policy. Despite positive developments in the market, macroeconomic uncertainties remain the primary factor restricting Bitcoin’s short-term upward movement.
Technical Outlook for Bitcoin
Bitcoin made a significant recovery move last week, breaking out of the falling channel in a bullish rally that began on March 11. While the uptrend pushed the price to $88,000, buying momentum weakened near $87,000, confirming that the Fibonacci 0.382 level around this zone is a key resistance point.
Selling pressure in this region could lead to a retest of the upper band of the falling channel. If that happens, Bitcoin may pull back to the $80,000–$82,000 range. However, if buyers step in at this level, a stronger recovery trend could emerge.
In another scenario, if Bitcoin holds above the $86,000 level going into the weekend, it may continue its upward trend without a backtest. On the daily chart, $86,000 aligns with the intersection of short-term exponential moving averages (EMAs). If Bitcoin remains above these levels, the next target could be the 3-month EMA at $90,000. A breakout from there could accelerate the price toward the $95,000–$98,000 range.
However, the Stochastic RSI indicator has entered the overbought zone, with the past two weeks of gains occurring on low trading volume. This suggests that losing the $86,000 level could trigger a pullback toward $80,000. As a result, $86,000 stands out as a critical price zone, with Bitcoin’s next move likely to gain momentum depending on whether it breaks above or falls below this level. The overall technical outlook currently favors a bearish trend.
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