Breaking News
Get 40% Off 0
🔎 See NVDA full ProTips for an instant risks or rewards Claim 40% OFF

US Q4 GDP Nowcast Still Points to Moderate Growth in 2023

By James PicernoMarket OverviewNov 28, 2023 20:38
ph.investing.com/analysis/us-q4-gdp-nowcast-still-points-to-moderate-growth-in-2023-187056
US Q4 GDP Nowcast Still Points to Moderate Growth in 2023
By James Picerno   |  Nov 28, 2023 20:38
Saved. See Saved Items.
This article has already been saved in your Saved Items
 

The recession that was widely predicted when the year began has only been postponed, some forecasters warn. The US is likely to contract at some point in the new year, runs the updated outlook. Maybe, but 2023 remains on track to exit this year in a growth mode, according to the latest nowcasts.

US output for Q4 is projected to increase at an annualized 2.0% for GDP in the final three months of 2023, based on the median for a set of estimates compiled by CapitalSpectator.com.

The current nowcast reflects a sharp deceleration from the 4.9% surge reported for Q3, but today’s revised Q4 median data still suggests that recession risk will remain low for the remainder of the year.

US Real GDP Change
US Real GDP Change

Today’s update for Q4 output is virtually unchanged from the previous estimate published on Nov. 16. The stability is encouraging because it suggests that incoming data aligns with a moderate growth trend.

If the current median estimate is correct, US economic activity appears set to return to a “normal” expansion, i.e., the pace that prevailed before growth temporarily ramped up in Q3. The question is whether a ~2% trend is sustainable in 2024.

Looking at economic profiles for each of the individual US states suggests recession risk may be rising.

“At a nationwide level, the number of states exhibiting economic growth went from 33 over the prior 3 months to just 16 in October,” advise DataTrek Research’s Nicholas Colas and Jessica Rabe.

“The comparison for states showing outright contraction over the same two timeframes went from 16 to 27.”

State Coincident Indexes Oct-2023
State Coincident Indexes Oct-2023

"Although the net effect is still biased toward growth, the trend may be weakening. The current growth bias should be enough to keep the US economy as a whole from falling into recession this quarter,” Colas and Rabe conclude.

“How these trends develop through the balance of Q4 will tell us a lot about the state of the US economy as we enter 2024.”

US Q4 GDP Nowcast Still Points to Moderate Growth in 2023
 

Related Articles

Gary Tanashian
Let’s Talk ‘Inflation’, Post-CPI By Gary Tanashian - Feb 15, 2024

A little discussion about this thing we call “inflation” after the January CPI reportA vast majority of people see inflation as rising prices, wages, and ‘pushed’ costs within the...

US Q4 GDP Nowcast Still Points to Moderate Growth in 2023

Add a Comment

Comment Guidelines

We encourage you to use comments to engage with users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind: 

  • Enrich the conversation
  • Stay focused and on track. Only post material that’s relevant to the topic being discussed.
  • Be respectful. Even negative opinions can be framed positively and diplomatically.
  •  Use standard writing style. Include punctuation and upper and lower cases.
  • NOTE: Spam and/or promotional messages and links within a comment will be removed
  • Avoid profanity, slander or personal attacks directed at an author or another user.
  • Don’t Monopolize the Conversation. We appreciate passion and conviction, but we also believe strongly in giving everyone a chance to air their thoughts. Therefore, in addition to civil interaction, we expect commenters to offer their opinions succinctly and thoughtfully, but not so repeatedly that others are annoyed or offended. If we receive complaints about individuals who take over a thread or forum, we reserve the right to ban them from the site, without recourse.
  • Only English comments will be allowed.

Perpetrators of spam or abuse will be deleted from the site and prohibited from future registration at Investing.com’s discretion.

Write your thoughts here
 
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
 
Post
Post also to:
 
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
1000
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Thanks for your comment. Please note that all comments are pending until approved by our moderators. It may therefore take some time before it appears on our website.
 
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
 
Post
 
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
1000
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Add Chart to Comment
Confirm Block

Are you sure you want to block %USER_NAME%?

By doing so, you and %USER_NAME% will not be able to see any of each other's Investing.com's posts.

%USER_NAME% was successfully added to your Block List

Since you’ve just unblocked this person, you must wait 48 hours before renewing the block.

Report this comment

I feel that this comment is:

Comment flagged

Thank You!

Your report has been sent to our moderators for review
Continue with Google
or
Sign up with Email