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Last year was a record for S&P 500® stock buybacks, led by the now “Lag 7” companies, though the SPX buyback yield dropped to a 2-year low
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Recent repurchase activity points to a pullback, but insiders are on the buying prowl
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International trends are less exciting, though the action might just be getting underway given the ex-US market’s outperformance year-to-date
Consumers weren’t the only ones on a buying binge to end 2024. Q4 retail earnings and end-of-year Retail Sales reports were impressive, but corporate buyback activity was also gaudy. According to S&P Dow Jones, S&P 500 companies significantly increased their stock repurchases in Q4 2024, with buybacks totaling $243.2 billion, a 7.4% increase from the third quarter. 2024 finished with a flourish, marking a record $942.5 billion annual sum, an 18.5% jump from 2023.
Of course, higher stock prices meant the impact on earnings per share was actually comparable to the previous year, and the SPX buyback yield fell to a four-year low of 1.89%, down 10 basis points year-on-year and nearly a full percentage point under its 2022 rate of 2.87%. But with an early-year dip among US equities, is now an opportunity for firms to step up their buyback game?
Weak Retail Sentiment, Easing Corporate Repurchases
The most recent data suggests a slowdown. According to BofA Global Research, as of March 18, its corporate client buyback activity has recently pulled back. Buyback executions now trail typical seasonal levels after a stretch of elevated repurchases throughout much of January and February. Just as retail investors have become uncertain about where the stock market may go in the next six months (the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey has averaged a dreadful –40 net bulls reading in the last four weeks), corporates may have become reticent to scoop up their own shares.
So, toss the US buyback trend in the pile of data that had been strong to close 2024 but then turned softer in early 2025. Let’s open the aperture and view things globally.
Wall Street Horizon’s count of global corporate buyback announcements reveals less volatile swings (see chart below). The trailing four-quarter moving average of repurchase announcements (not executions) has been steady since late 2022. The first quarter is almost in the books, and it tracks to be down notably from last year’s Q1.
Global Buyback Announcement Trends: Steady Since 2022
Source: Wall Street Horizon
The second quarter will be particularly interesting to watch unfold, as there have been critical macro developments at home and abroad. The S&P 500 might print its worst quarter since Q3 2022—near the bear market’s bottom. At the same time, foreign stocks, mainly European and Chinese equities, are having a moment.
The German DAX was up by more than 15% in 2025 through the middle of last week. China’s Hang Seng Index sported a 21% YTD advance. Pull up the list of country winners so far this year, and you will find many European markets, like Poland and Greece, with the USA near the bottom of the list.
Given this flip in global equity performance, the first-quarter earnings season and corporate repurchase announcement flow will be interesting and potentially telling about where US and ex-US equities go from here. Furthermore, given Germany’s “whatever it takes” fiscal stimulus initiative—which could be a game changer for the Euro Area—there could be a rash of secondary equity issuance announcements as companies take advantage of higher stock prices and increased positive-NPV capital project opportunities.
Higher European Interest Rates Have Key Implications for Corporate Financial Decision-Making
Buybacks are not always about rewarding shareholders, though. They play a critical role in firms’ capital structures. In general, repurchases reduce equity’s composition, lowering the overall weighted average cost of capital. As European yields jump toward their highest levels since 2011, CEOs and CFOs must carefully consider the impact of significant buybacks.
From a signaling standpoint, if the Q1 reporting period (the first full one after European equities’ strong alpha performance to US stocks) features a large uptick in repurchase announcements, that could increase shareholders’ confidence in a continued rally. Like with so many aspects of today’s economy and financial markets, it’s a wait-and-see situation, but there may already be the first inklings of corporate toe-dipping in stocks.
Is the “Insider Put” In Play?
According to Bloomberg, company executives and insiders are “buying the dip” in US equities as March comes to a close. During the throes of the S&P 500’s –10% correction earlier this month, in-the-know investors were scooping up shares at a fast clip. This development comes after insider transactions were heavily skewed to the sell side in January. There’s clearly action under the market’s surface that bears watching as the second quarter is ushered in.
The Bottom Line
Corporate buybacks surged to a record $942.5 billion in 2024 among S&P 500 companies, led by the suddenly “Lagnificent” seven firms, but higher stock prices resulted in a multi-year low in the S&P 500 buyback yield. While Q4 saw a strong finish, early 2025 data indicate a slowdown in buyback activity, though an uptick in insider buying just recently is a potentially encouraging sign.
Globally, European and Chinese equities are outperforming, and as Q2 gets started, corporate buyback trends will be important to monitor as the macro foundation continues to shift.