🎁 💸 Warren Buffett's Top Picks Are Up +49.1%. Copy Them to Your Watchlist – For FreeCopy Portfolio

Stocks Week Ahead: Inflation Swaps Suggest CPI Could Come In Hotter Than Expected

Published 03/11/2024, 03:51 PM
NDX
-
NVDA
-
AMD
-
DX
-
US3YT=X
-
US10YT=X
-
US30YT=X
-

This week will be dominated by inflation data and the bond auction returning to the 1 PM ET time slot. Today, a 3-year Treasury auction will be at 1 PM ET.

Tuesday will release the highly anticipated CPI report, estimated to have increased by 0.4% m/m, up from 0.3% last month and 3.1% y/y, in line with January. Core CPI is increasing by 0.3% m/m, down from 0.4% in January, while rising by 3.7% y/y, down from 3.9%. The 10-year Treasury auction will follow at 1 PM ET.

Wednesday will bring the 30-year Trueasry auction at 1 PM, while Thursday brings retail sales, estimated to have increased by 0.8% m/m in February versus a decline of 0.8% in January. Also, on Thursday morning, we get PPI, which is expected to have increased by 0.3% m/m flat to last month and increase by 1.2% y/y, up from 0.9% in January. Finally, Friday is the University of Michigan with preliminary March data showing 1-year inflation expectations have risen to 3.1% from 3.0%, and 3 to 5-year expectations have risen from 3% to 2.9%.

As previously noted, inflation swaps and Kalshi suggest that inflation will be hotter than expected on Tuesday morning. Both predict numbers to come in 0.1% hotter than the median analysts’ forecast, at 3.2% y/y and 0.5% m/m.KALSUCYM Index

Since July, the actual CPI rate has met or beaten the CPI swaps 7 out of 8 times, except for November. Meanwhile, the actual CPI rate has met or beaten analysts’ median forecast 5 out of 8 times.

For the most part, the CPI Swap market has just done a better job predicting the y/y inflation rate over the last several months. This suggests that if the swap market is right again, we could see a CPI y/y print of 3.2% or higher come Tuesday morning. So, we will need to watch these numbers closely.

CPI Swap Market

Remember, the NASDAQ fell after the CPI number in February, and it looked ready to crack. Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) essentially saved it. But basically, the NASDAQ 100 closed this past Friday in the same spot it was a month ago, one day before the January CPI report. So, for all the talk about how the market doesn’t care, one could easily say that it may care more than it would seem.Nasdaq 100-Hourly Chart

Since February 12, the NASDAQ 100 has been up 56.05 points or 0.31%, with Nvidia contributing 197.06 points to the NASDAQ 100. Basically, without Nvidia’s move, the index would have been lower. One could also easily argue that without Nvidia’s result, AMD (NASDAQ:AMD) wouldn’t have gained 20%, adding 75 points to the NDX either, because the number of stocks up versus down is pretty much near even currently at 52 to 49 winners to losers.NDX Table

Meanwhile, the NASDAQ 100 had a relatively large bearish engulfing pattern on Friday, which doesn’t always work out and needs confirmation by moving lower on Monday. Still, it is notable, especially considering it came on a sharp intraday reversal.

Nasdaq-Daily Chart

The reversal was driven by Nvidia imploding on itself like a star that goes supernova. The idea is the same: when a star ages and grows large, its mass increases, and eventually, the mass grows so large that the star collapses on itself.

In this case, Nvidia’s price kept rising, pushing its implied volatility higher; eventually, the implied volatility got so high that call buyers could no longer profit, and that essentially ended the squeeze taking place, causing the stock to collapse.

As soon as that IV on the $975 call for expiration on March 15 hit 75%, the stock collapsed.

Implied Volatility

This also created a bearish engulfing pattern on Nvidia on massive volume. While the total volume may have been less than on August 24 or May 25, 2023, the stock is more than double and triple the price of those prior days, which means the notional dollar values that traded were at insane levels. Consider almost 115 million shares of an almost $900 stock trading hands.NVIDIA Corp-Daily Chart

This tells us two things for this week: be mindful that where Nvidia goes likely means the market will follow and that a hot CPI print come Tuesday morning may very well matter, and this time, Nvidia may not be able to save it.

Original Post

Latest comments

Loading next article…
Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.