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Michael Kramer

  • Analysis & Opinion

Michael Kramer's Comment & Analysis
A complete archive of Michael Kramer's articles, including current analysis & opinion.

Stocks rose sharply over the week, despite a 1% drop on Friday after a strong job report. Jay Powell was right on Wednesday when he stated that the labor market was too tight and that their data...
This will be a huge week for markets, with an FOMC meeting, a slew of economic data points, and a big week in earnings. The show stopper will be the FOMC meeting, where the Fed is expected to slow the...
GDP data suggest the economy remains very strong However, there are signs that inflation may not go away easily This may call for more action by the Fed The latest quarterly GDP data suggest the...
This week won’t have Fed speakers as they enter the blackout period ahead of their February 1 rate announcement. That will leave us with a somewhat slow week, with economic data and bond...
There will be a lot of data this week, and perhaps more critically, Lael Brainard speaks on Thursday. Now, typically Jay Powell is the most important when it comes to Fed speakers. But Brainard is the...
The markets are once again testing the Fed The Fed's forward guidance doesn't seem to be working anymore It may result in the Fed discussing further balance sheet reduction to tighten financial...
It will be a big week for inflation, with the CPI report on January, with estimates of a 6.5% increase y/y, down from 7.1% in November. We will get import and export prices on Friday and the...
Financial conditions have eased dramatically since the middle of October This has acted to support stock prices However, conditions are likely to start tightening again Something seems broken....
There may be no recession in 2023, just a period of slower growth It will allow the Fed to keep financial conditions tight. Tight financial conditions mean a stronger dollar, higher rates, and...
In this year’s write-up, I will review my ten predictions for 2023. Anything can happen, but this exercise has a point, which helps me lay out a game plan and thought process for the path that...