Yields on most assets around the world have edged higher this year. The increase reflects a range of concerns, including sticky inflation risk and greater uncertainty for global trade flows. The crowd, in other words, is demanding a higher yield premium these days, based on a set of ETFs representing the major asset classes.
The average payout rate (via 12-month trailing yield) for global markets is currently 4.02%, based on data from Morningstar.com. That’s modestly above the 3.74% yield in our previous update (for data through Nov. 18).
The US Treasury market’s “safe” yields are mostly higher in recent history too. The 10-year note, for instance, currently yields 4.54%, more than 50 basis points above the average global market yield.
Within the major asset classes, US junk bonds (JNK) continue to post the highest 12-month trailing payout rate: 6.54%. The lowest yield is still US equities (VTI) at 1.23%.
For readers, eyeing these yields as a basis for asset allocation, the standard caveats should be considered. The trailing payout rates may or may not prevail in the future. In contrast with the opportunity to lock in current yields via government bonds through a buy-and-hold strategy, historical payout rates for risk assets by way of ETFs can be misleading in real-time, due to changing payout amounts and share prices through time.
One reason is the ever-present risk that whatever you earn in yields via ETF fund could be wiped out, and more, with lower share prices in the future. That’s a reason to also consider total return expectations when evaluating yield opportunities. For perspective on ex-ante performance, you can start with the monthly updates of CapitalSpectator.com’s long-term outlook for the major asset classes.
The opportunity to earn yields above the “risk-free” payout rates on US Treasuries may look appealing, but relatively high yields generally reflect higher risks. That doesn’t mean it’s misguided to assemble a portfolio that’s designed to maximize yield, but it’s rarely if ever, a free lunch.