- Major U.S. indexes break new historic records, S&P500 just a hair away from 5,000 points.
- But, potential headwinds loom as US banking crisis fears come back to the fore.
- In this piece, we will take analyze the key US indexes from a technical perspective.
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The bull market rages on, so far undeterred by the likely delay in interest rate cuts and hawkish statements from Fed officials.
Several factors have contributed to this resilience. Primarily, there's the increasingly probable scenario of a soft landing in the U.S. economy.
Additionally, a positive overall Q4 earnings season has given the market further breath, showing that the better-than-feared economy conditions are resulting in similarly strong corporate profitability. On top of that, the AI narrative has maintained interest in tech companies strong, as investors anticipate further inflows of speculative capital into the segment as financial conditions improve.
On the downside, however, we're also witnessing the potential spark of the next installment of the banking crisis, with New York Community Bancorp (NYSE:NYCB) facing problems.
The commercial real estate sector, too, is under scrutiny. Recently, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged that some small banks may need to be taken over or closed.
As the market weights in the fundamental factors supporting the current price action, let's have a look at the technical indicators that will likely present interesting trading opportunities.
S&P 500: Will 5000 Milestone Hinder Upward Momentum?
As the S&P 500 continues its upward trajectory, recent rebounds have been relatively flat, offering limited opportunities for connections to the main trend at more favorable prices.
Presently, investor attention should be focused on the 5000-point level, where a potential reaction and deceleration could occur.
The first signal of a larger correction will be the breakout of the upward-sloping trend line and the descent below 4900 points. The first area of support to look at in terms of joining the train is the area around 4800 points.
Nasdaq Approaches 16000 Mark: What's Next?
We are dealing with an almost identical situation to that on the S&P 500 on the main US index of technology companies, the Nasdaq.
In this case, however, we witnessed a correction that tested the local support located in the price area of 15200 points.
This region is currently the main reference point for a possible rebound, the signal of which will also be the breaking of the upward trend line.
The natural target for the demand side is the nearest round level of 16000 points.
The scenario of a deeper correction will be possible in the event of a descent below 15000 points, which opens the way for an attack on 14500 points.
Dow Jones: Can the Index Catch Up?
Unlike the two analyzed above, the oldest U.S. stock market index, which is the so-called Dow Jones Industrial Average, failed to improve on its historical maxima in recent days.
However, this does not change the technical situation to a greater extent, which indicates a strong upward trend so far with no signs of a possible breakdown.
If we see another reaction in the 38800 price area, a double peak formation will be formed, which is a clear signal heralding a corrective movement.
As for the ranges for declines, we have two potential support areas located around 37800 and 37200 points.
The main target level for the bulls is now the important round barrier of 40000 points, which is a resistance area due to the lack of historical reference points.
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Disclaimer: This article is written for informational purposes only; it does not constitute a solicitation, offer, advice, or recommendation to invest as such it is not intended to incentivize the purchase of assets in any way. I would like to remind you that any type of asset, is evaluated from multiple points of view and is highly risky and therefore, any investment decision and the associated risk remains with the investor.