Currency Forecast

Brazilian President Lula recently asked the following questions:‘’Every night I ask myself why should every country have to be tied to the US Dollar for...

The Hungarian forint sold off 2% yesterday after a local central banker surprised markets by suggesting Hungary could make preparations to start easing interest rates. Central banks in Eastern Europe...

Do we need to worry about the end of the US dollar dominance in international trade – the de-dollarization of global finance?There is widespread discussion and concern in some quarters as China...

The dollar will be extremely hard to replace for four reasons: The rule of law, liquid financial markets, and economic and military might. 60% of global currency reserves are in dollars, and about...

With two weeks to go before the Fed and ECB meetings, central bank speakers have their last chances to steer market expectations before the quiet periods start. However, it appears markets have fully...

FX markets continue to be buffeted by opposing forces and are struggling to define short-term trends. Despite some positive Chinese activity data, Asian currencies are not rallying, suggesting that...

We think EUR/USD may break 1.10 next week before the US payrolls, as the dollar remains vulnerable despite some repricing of dovish Fed expectations.USD: Struggling to find supportThe dollar has...

With the yen bearing the brunt of the risk rally, the dollar saw some delayed benefits from the re-tuning in Fed rate expectations and enjoyed a modest recovery yesterday. Today, all eyes will be on...

Markets have reassessed the risks to European lenders and looked considerably less concerned as markets re-opened on Monday. If this calm in Europe continues, monetary policy divergence is what may be...

While most investors were trying to gauge the Federal Reserve’s next moves in light of recent bank failures last week, something interesting happened in Moscow.During a three-day state visit,...

The recent failure of two US banks, SVB and Signature, have understandably triggered a major re-appraisal of Fed tightening prospects. This has seen two-year EUR/USD swap rate differentials move to...

The S&P 500 closed down 1.8% yesterday led by financials (-4%). Heavy losses for SVB Financial (NASDAQ:SIVB), a California-based lender to the venture capital industry, are raising questions over...

The USD/CHF has stalled ahead of the US jobs report on Friday, as the dollar bulls pause for a breather. But the path of least resistance remains to the upside for the greenback, as I have explained...

Fed Chair Powell opened the door to a 50bp hike and hinted at a higher peak rate in his semi-annual testimony. This was a reminder that picking the top in the dollar rally remains too risky....