Currency Forecast

FX markets continue to be buffeted by opposing forces and are struggling to define short-term trends. Despite some positive Chinese activity data, Asian currencies are not rallying, suggesting that...

Headlines like the ones below lead some to believe that the U.S. dollar’s death may be coming soon.China, Brazil Strike Deal to Ditch Dollar for Trade- Barron’s 3/2023 China Completes...

We think EUR/USD may break 1.10 next week before the US payrolls, as the dollar remains vulnerable despite some repricing of dovish Fed expectations.USD: Struggling to find supportThe dollar has...

With the yen bearing the brunt of the risk rally, the dollar saw some delayed benefits from the re-tuning in Fed rate expectations and enjoyed a modest recovery yesterday. Today, all eyes will be on...

Markets have been more stable so far this week, as investors’ assessment of the risks to European lenders have improved. This has supported the European stock markets and the single...

Markets have reassessed the risks to European lenders and looked considerably less concerned as markets re-opened on Monday. If this calm in Europe continues, monetary policy divergence is what may be...

The recent failure of two US banks, SVB and Signature, have understandably triggered a major re-appraisal of Fed tightening prospects. This has seen two-year EUR/USD swap rate differentials move to...

The S&P 500 closed down 1.8% yesterday led by financials (-4%). Heavy losses for SVB Financial (NASDAQ:SIVB), a California-based lender to the venture capital industry, are raising questions over...

Fed Chair Powell opened the door to a 50bp hike and hinted at a higher peak rate in his semi-annual testimony. This was a reminder that picking the top in the dollar rally remains too risky....

In this educational video, I have described in detail how I trade the inside bar pattern. Specifically, I look for the failure of this pattern to go in the trend direction. The video is on the...

USD: How Strong is the US Economy and What Will the Fed Do About It? After a few weeks where US price data has taken centre stage, this week will all be about activity data and Fed speak. On the...

The USD/JPY and other yen crosses remain supported thanks to a hawkish Fed, mostly stronger than expected US macro data, and recent dovish comments from the new BOJ Governor. In this short video,...

The NZD/USD rebounded as the U.S. dollar sold off on Tuesday on the back of some disappointing data. But the bearish trend on the kiwi still remained intact. In fact, price was testing a key level of...

USD: A delicate balance Another day and another piece of positive US activity data. Yesterday saw a strong January retail sales release. Though boosted by warmer weather, the data still positively...