Exxon Vs. Chevron: Which is the Better Dividend Aristocrat?

As expected, President Trump’s friendliness to the oil and gas industry carried over to his 2nd term. Following the avalanche of executive orders (EOs) on January 20th, multiple ones were aimed at federal agencies to remove regulatory burdens against the energy sector.

Just by declaring a National Energy Emergency, President Trump set the stage for accelerated completion of energy and infrastructure projects. This includes fuel waivers, expediting the utilization of Alaska’s ample resources, and canceling many Biden-era policies that overturned Trump’s own policies in his 1st term.

In short, by significantly increasing the domestic energy supply across the board, President Trump aims to lower the cost of living to “increase the prosperity of the American worker”. Of course, the fastest way to accomplish that is to lower energy costs that go into every product and service in existence.

The question is, which energy giants will benefit most during Trump’s term, ExxonMobil (NYSE: NYSE:XOM) or Chevron (NYSE: NYSE:CVX)? Let’s examine their latest earnings to see where they are positioned.

Trump’s International Moves to Lower Oil Prices

Removing the regulatory costs of oil & gas operations is just one layer for boosting energy production. President Trump is counting on tariffs as the main tool to bring down the oil price. This includes newly announced 25% tariffs against Canada and Mexico, although it is still uncertain if they will cover crude oil.

“It depends on what the price is. If the oil is properly priced, if they treat us properly — which they don’t.”

President Donald Trump at Thursday’s White House press conference

Speaking of which, Brent crude oil price, now at $75.61 per barrel, has remained stable, down only 0.88% year-to-date, having dropped 6.55% over one year. In addition to tariffs, President Trump expects Saudi Arabia to push OPEC+ to lower oil prices by boosting production.

OPEC+ representatives should decide this course on February 3rd at the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee. Even without Trump’s prompting, OPEC+ nations are expected to unwind previous production cuts starting from April.

With lowered oil prices on the horizon, it is then a matter of ExxonMobil and Chevron managing their cost-efficiency, expansion plans, and debt loads.

ExxonMobil Beats Chevron in Earnings Expectations

On Friday, ExxonMobil reported its Q4 2024 earnings, showing $7.38 billion adjusted profit. Although lower than Q3’s $8.6 billion, it beat the LSEG analyst consensus of $1.56 at $1.67 earnings per share (EPS).

For the full year, as the largest domestic oil producer, ExxonMobil generated $33.46 billion in earnings, significantly down from 2023’s $38.57 billion, suggesting the economy slowed down under the Biden admin.

To service ongoing operations and future growth, ExxonMobil generated $34.4 billion in free cash flow for the entire year. This is down from $37.53 billion in 2023.

Chevron dropped its earnings on the same day, showing $3.24 billion for Q4. Mirroring slower demand in line with ExxonMobil, this is also down from Q3’s $4.48 billion. However, Chevron failed to exceed the LSEG consensus of $2.11 at $2.06 adjusted earnings per share (EPS).