HSBC's Frederic Neumann presented a positive outlook on Vietnam's economy during a conference in Hanoi on Tuesday, forecasting a GDP growth of 6.3% for the upcoming year. The projection follows an anticipated economic growth of 5% for this year, despite an over 8% decline in export turnovers as reported by the General Statistics Office.
Neumann attributed the resurgence to a global demand rebound that is expected to boost exports, coupled with an increase in domestic spending. He highlighted that total retail sales and consumer service revenue have seen a substantial growth of 9.7%. This rise in shopping behavior is anticipated to drive higher consumer demand, contributing significantly to the country's economic growth.
In addition to these factors, Neumann pointed out that the financial, service, and real estate sectors are set for a significant recovery after enduring a challenging period. This recovery is also expected to play a vital role in Vietnam's overall economic resurgence.
VinaCapital's Brook Taylor echoed Neumann's sentiments, predicting that domestic spending, including government purchases, will further fuel the nation's growth. Accelerated infrastructure development is also on the horizon, which is likely to give the economy an additional boost.
However, both experts acknowledged potential risks associated with Vietnam's high economic openness and its dependence on main export markets such as the U.S., Europe, and China. They warned that any weakening in world demand could pose risks to Vietnam's export growth pillars and subsequently impact its economic trajectory.
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