Investing.com -- U.S. liquidity, or the money supply, continues to surge, exceeding even the most optimistic projections, according to a recent note from JPMorgan.
"US liquidity or money supply keeps rising strongly," the bank states.
JPMorgan explained that since May 2023, the U.S. money supply has expanded by a substantial $2.2 trillion, representing a 9.6% increase.
“This strong, faster than nominal GDP, US money creation of the past year and a half has likely reverberated into financial assets and, in particular, US equities,” added the bank.
JPMorgan attributes this robust money creation to various factors, including a decline in the Fed's reverse repo facility usage, credit creation through bank lending, and bond purchases by U.S. commercial banks.
The bank’s analysts expect this supportive liquidity backdrop to continue this year even as cash allocations overall look rather low.
While low cash allocations among investors might not immediately hinder the impact of this liquidity surge on U.S. financial assets, JPMorgan warns that they pose a vulnerability.
"These low cash allocations would not necessarily prevent US liquidity creation from propagating US financial assets further from here, but they rather pose a vulnerability for financial assets if a negative shock in the future induces economic agents to start rebuilding their low cash allocations as they did in March 2020 or in 2022."
Meanwhile, JPMorgan also said that despite strong inflows into US equities and overall long equity positions, there is “little evidence of hedges within the US equity space, either via options or short interest.”
However, they said there is some evidence of an increase in hedges against a rise in equity volatility.
“There appears to be some evidence of investors using options on the dollar and gold as hedges against drawdowns in risky assets,” stated the analysts.