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UBS cautious on Etsy as it awaits better GMS growth visibility

Published 10/31/2023, 09:00 PM
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UBS assumed coverage of online marketplace company Etsy (NASDAQ:ETSY) with a Neutral rating in a note Tuesday, lowering the stock price target to $75 from $105 per share.

Analysts told investors in their memo that the firm is waiting for better gross merchandise sales (GMS) growth visibility.

"Our rating reflects caution related to future estimate revisions (UBSe '24 Etsy Marketplace GMS growth/total adj EBITDA +4.6% YoY/$809M vs Street 7% YoY/$821M) as growth visibility remains limited in the face of increasing competition and macro risks," the analysts explained.

"Offsetting these concerns are ETSY's brand strength and optionality to improve margins and return capital faster. With regards to growth, we see more runway for international growth, but view the durability of growth from search improvements and increased buyer frequency both as 'show-me' stories," they added.

The firm said that key factors that could change their stance on the stock include the timing/magnitude of growth initiatives and whether ETSY pursues more ambitious changes that could deliver "all-weather" growth.

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