(Bloomberg) -- Treasury yields breached more key levels as bond traders boosted bets that the Federal Reserve will allow inflation to overshoot as the U.S. economy recovers.
Yields on the benchmark 10-year bond climbed as much as 10 basis points to 1.74% -- the highest since January 2020 -- in London trading Thursday. They also breached 2.5% for the 30-year debt, a level that hasn’t been seen since August 2019.
Treasury yields had been surging this year as investors divide into two camps as to whether stimulus spending and vaccine rollouts will drive a sharper global economic recovery and higher inflation. While some see the 10-year yield hitting 2%, others including BlackRock Inc (NYSE:BLK). say expectations for sustained inflation gains are misplaced.
“The selloff is likely linked to a combination of rising inflation in the medium-term and the fact that the Fed will have to play catch-up if it stays so long on hold while the economy performs strongly,” said Sebastien Galy, senior macro strategist at Nordea Investment Funds SA, adding that the 10-year yield could hit 1.8%.
The breach of 1.7% for the benchmark was followed by more selling as futures volumes surged. During the Tokyo trading session, Treasuries were already under modest pressure, weighed by other markets.
Australian bonds had tumbled after a strong employment report with benchmark yields rising as much as 11 basis points. Japan’s yields briefly climbed higher after Nikkei reported that the Bank of Japan may widen its 10-year yield’s target range at its policy decision on Friday.
The 2% Mark
Treasury 10-year yields are are likely to hit 2% in the short-term as traders continue “digesting the FOMC and coming to the view that stronger U.S. growth, and a Fed more tolerant of higher inflation, mean there is further upside for bond yields,” said Khoon Goh, strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group (OTC:ANZBY) Ltd. “The BOJ news also added to that overall sentiment.”
U.S. bonds are lagging German paper, as the spread between each nation’s benchmark hit the widest in a year with the latest selling.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell again indicated that he wasn’t concerned over the recent surge in long-term yields, with his focus still on whether financial conditions remained accommodative. The central bank also reiterated projections that they’ll hold rates near zero through 2023.
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