(Repeats story from late Friday with no changes)
* Singapore, Thailand, Philippines and Indonesia markets lag
Asia
* Analysts forecast earnings shrinking 1/3 or more in SE
Asia
* Investors expect a rebound, but no flows until it begins
By Tom Westbrook and Scott Murdoch
SINGAPORE/HONG KONG, Sept 11 (Reuters) - Southeast Asia is
slipping to the bottom of global investors' shopping lists, and
fund managers expect to stay away from the region as COVID-19
rages across Indonesia and the Philippines and wrecks the
economies of Singapore and Thailand.
Southeast Asia, once sought for yield and growth, now
attracts the worst earnings projections in Asia, and even upbeat
managers say it is too soon to buy back in.
"ASEAN used to be a darling of investors," said Binay
Chandgothia, head of Asia at Principal Global Asset Allocation.
But with tourism in the doldrums, a big growth driver is
missing, he said. It will probably return slowly - so, too, the
tide of investment - which has been running steadily out,
removing at least $16 billion from the region so far this year.
"Investors are not going to miss everything if they don't
allocate today in anticipation of things getting better,"
Chandgothia said.
Investors have certainly not missed much the last few
months.
Stock markets in Singapore .STI , Jakarta .JKSE , Manila
.PSI and Bangkok .SETI are down about 20% this year - even
more in dollar terms - putting them not far behind the worst
performers in the world.
Indonesia and the Philippines have the highest COVID-19
death tolls in Southeast Asia, while Singapore and Thailand are
among the most economically exposed in the world.
Analysts have been slashing forecasts viciously and expect
company earnings to drop around 30% or more in these four
markets, compared with a forecast of a 4.2% decline in Asia
generally and falls of 22% in the United States and 40% in
Europe.
A fresh plunge in Indonesian shares, after the announcement
of a return to distancing restrictions in Jakarta, has
underscored the risks.
"While there are lockdowns happening it's difficult to put
extra money there, not knowing how long you're going to wait
for," said Sean Taylor, chief investment officer in Asia for
German asset manager DWS, who is underweight in countries
belonging to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).
"To be prudent, we're waiting, particularly when we've got
better opportunities through China and North Asia."
TECH BETS TAKE THE CAKE
Uncertainty over progress on vaccine candidates and a mania
for tech stocks has also sent money earmarked for Southeast Asia
elsewhere, most notably to China, South Korea and Japan.
For many, the major buying trigger would be a viable vaccine
before bringing back capital flows of any size, according to
Nader Naeimi, AMP Capital's head of dynamic markets.
To be sure, investment isn't entirely absent. Bankers say
there is interest in upcoming listings, and stockpickers who
delve below macro trends have been active.
"We are more exposed in Indonesia," said Will Malcolm, a
Singapore-based portfolio manager at Aviva Investors, which
holds shares in Bank Rakyat BBRI.JK and broadcaster Surya
Citra Media SCMA.JK , partly in a bet on consumer spending.
But others who are positive say investors are holding back.
"We're telling our clients that these (markets) are likely
to have a strong tactical performance in the next 6-12 months,"
said Ken Peng, Citi Private Bank's head of Asia Investment
Strategy.
"But in terms of global investors, you don't really see that
much interest."
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SEA market performance https://tmsnrt.rs/3bL0DIl
Change in Asian companies profit estimates this year https://tmsnrt.rs/2FrpF2S
Breakdown by country for estimates changes in last 30 days https://tmsnrt.rs/3bOmAWX
Investors shun Thailand as growth weakens, political protests
heat up first wave: how Indonesia failed to control
coronavirus warns of slow recovery as virus slams Asia's exporters
suffers first recession in 29 yrs, braces for grim
year on virus woes investments in Asian equities https://tmsnrt.rs/3lKhL5I
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