Analysts at analytics firm GlobalData said they anticipate that US job openings (JOLTS) for November 2023 will decline to 8.5 million, the lowest in two and a half years.
GlobalData anticipates the US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report for November 2023, set to be released on 3 January 2024, will show between 8.3 and 8.5 million job openings. The forecast is below consensus expectations and lower than the October 2023 figure of 8.73 million.
"If realized, this would mark the lowest reading since April 2021, driven by tighter monetary policy and companies leveraging AI to improve productivity, says GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company," said analysts at GlobalData.
"GlobalData's US Active Jobs index, derived from high-frequency company job postings dataset, which has over 90% correlation with JOLTS data and available in near real-time, shows a 5.2% month-on-month fall for November 2023. GlobalData's proprietary JOLTS nowcasting model uses GlobalData's US Active Jobs index to forecast JOLTS numbers," they explained.
The firm believes the key factor resulting in the rapid decline in job openings is that the rate of job closures is surpassing the creation of new job postings across various sectors.
Analysts at GlobalData commented: "GlobalData anticipates a subdued trend in new job postings moving forward. This expectation is influenced not only by the tightening of monetary policy but also by the recent advancements in AI, particularly in generative AI.
They added that companies hiring across sectors with generative AI skillsets have accelerated over the last six months.