Evercore ISI analysts lowered their price on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) from $155 to $145 on Sunday, days after the leading electric vehicle (EV) maker reported financial results that missed analyst estimates.
In its analysis, the investment banking firm highlighted three main headwinds for TSLA.
First, Tesla seems “unable to sell” more than 1.7 to 1.9 million units, with further price cuts likely necessary but unproductive due to low demand elasticity.
Also, the launch of the anticipated $25k next-gen EV and the expansion into Mexico appear delayed, with a new strategy to introduce more affordable models by late this year or early 2025 using existing manufacturing lines.
“We take this “new model” as a new top hat on Y platform (akin to a 2/Y crossover; lower costs, refreshed exterior?; more details Aug 8th) with likely $30-35k ASP which we fear may disappoint Bull expectations (we model 300k/700k M2- CUV in ’26/27 already) on volume uptick and may not help much in the crucial Chinese market,” analysts wrote.
Lastly, analysts cautioned that Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) feature, once a secondary asset, has “increasingly become a bet on most of TSLA’s value.”
“TSLA is currently run rating EPS well south of $2.50 ’25-’26 if core volumes are no longer able to materially grow vs current 1.7-1.9MM. We employ two different valuations to reach similar Bear/Base/Bull scenarios of $75-80 downside, base $145, & upside of $200-$210.”