Timken Company (NYSE:TKR), a global leader in engineered bearings and power transmission products, reported mixed financial results for the first quarter of 2024. The company experienced a 9% organic revenue decline, primarily due to a significant downturn in China's wind energy sector. However, Timken's strong EBITDA margins at 20.7% and adjusted earnings per share of $1.77 highlighted its resilience in the face of challenging market conditions. Growth was noted in aerospace, rail, and services in India, partially offsetting the overall decline. Looking ahead, Timken expects flat revenue in the second quarter and anticipates seasonal declines in the latter half of the year. The company also announced an upcoming CEO transition, with Tarak Mehta set to take the helm in September.
Key Takeaways
- Timken's organic revenue fell by 9%, largely due to a decrease in China's wind energy market.
- Excluding the wind sector, organic revenue would have seen a smaller decline of less than 4%.
- The company reported strong EBITDA margins of 20.7% and adjusted earnings per share of $1.77.
- Growth was observed in aerospace, rail, and services in India, despite the overall revenue drop.
- Timken anticipates flat revenue in Q2 and a seasonal downturn in the second half of 2024.
- Tarak Mehta is announced to become the new CEO in September 2024.
Company Outlook
- Full-year revenue expected to decline by 2-4% from 2023, with organic revenue down 4-6%.
- Adjusted earnings per share projected to be between $6 and $6.30.
- Free cash flow for the year is anticipated to be approximately $425 million.
- The company maintains a strong balance sheet and is focused on executing a profitable growth strategy.
Bearish Highlights
- Asia-Pacific region revenue down 21%, primarily due to the wind energy decline in China.
- Americas and EMEA regions also saw declines in certain sectors like Off-Highway and General Industrial.
- Organic growth expected to decline in the high single digits in Q2.
- Gross margin in Q2 is projected to be lower due to volume declines and lower inventory levels.
Bullish Highlights
- Six acquisitions from the previous year contributed to a 4% revenue growth.
- Positive diversification in markets such as renewable energy, automation, and industrial services.
- Distribution performed slightly stronger than expected in Q1, with a positive full-year outlook.
- Integration of acquisitions has improved margins and sales teams are fully integrated.
Misses
- Net income on a GAAP basis was $104 million, or $1.46 per diluted share, lower than adjusted earnings per share.
- Full-year outlook indicates a revenue decline compared to the previous year.
Q&A Highlights
- No remaining questions were left unanswered at the conclusion of the earnings call.
In terms of financial health, Timken continues to maintain a strong balance sheet and is committed to a strategy that balances growth with capital allocation. The company's performance in the first quarter, despite the headwinds, demonstrates its ability to manage costs and maintain profitability. With an active pipeline for future acquisitions and a focus on diversifying its market presence, Timken is poised to navigate the challenges and capitalize on long-term growth opportunities.
InvestingPro Insights
Timken Company (TKR) has shown resilience in a challenging market, as evidenced by its strong EBITDA margins and the ability to maintain profitability. For investors looking deeper into the company's financials, here are some InvestingPro Data:
- The company's Market Cap stands at $6.26B USD, reflecting its considerable size in the industrial sector.
- With a P/E Ratio (Adjusted) for the last twelve months as of Q4 2023 at 13.69, Timken trades at a valuation that could be attractive compared to industry peers.
- Revenue Growth for the last twelve months as of Q4 2023 was reported at 6.06%, indicating some level of top-line expansion amidst the reported downturns.
InvestingPro Tips highlight a couple of strategic moves by Timken's management that could be of interest to investors:
- Management has been aggressively buying back shares, which could signal confidence in the company's value and prospects.
- The company has maintained dividend payments for 54 consecutive years, showcasing a commitment to returning value to shareholders.
For those considering an investment in Timken, these insights suggest a company with a proactive approach to capital management and a strong track record of shareholder returns. To explore more about Timken's financial health and strategic positioning, visit https://www.investing.com/pro/TKR for additional InvestingPro Tips—there are currently 9 more tips available. Don't forget to use the coupon code PRONEWS24 to get an additional 10% off a yearly or biyearly Pro and Pro+ subscription.
Full transcript - Timken Co (TKR) Q1 2024:
Operator: Good morning, all. My name is Lydia and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I'd like to welcome everyone to Timken's First Quarter Earnings Release Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Thank you. Ms. Elmblad, you may begin your conference.
Meghan Elmblad: Thanks, Lydia, and welcome everyone to our first quarter 2024 earnings conference call. This is Meghan Elmblad, Interim Manager of Investor Relations for the Timken Company. We appreciate you joining us today. Before we begin our remarks this morning, I want to point out that we have posted presentation material on the company's website that we will reference as part of today's review of the quarterly results. You can also access this material through the download feature on the earnings call webcast link. With me today are the Timken Company's President and CEO, Rich Kyle and Phil Fracassa, our Chief Financial Officer. We will have opening comments this morning from both Rich and Phil before we open up the call for your questions. During the Q&A, I would ask that you please limit your question to one question and one follow-up at a time to allow everyone a chance to participate. During today's call, you may hear forward-looking statements related to our future financial results, plans and business operations. Our actual results may differ materially from those projected or implied due to a variety of factors, which we describe in greater detail in today's press release and in our reports filed with the SEC, which are available on the timken.com website. We have included reconciliations between non-GAAP financial information, and its GAAP equivalent in the press release and presentation materials. Today's call is copyrighted by the Timken Company. and without expressed written consent, we prohibit any use, recording or transmission of any portion of the call. With that, I would like to thank you for your interest in the Timken Company. And I will now turn the call over to Rich.
Richard Kyle: Thanks, Megan. Good morning and thank you for joining our call. Timken delivered a solid first quarter with organic revenue in line with the industrial market conditions and strong margin performance. Our results continue to demonstrate the strength and diversity of Timken's portfolio and the successful execution of our strategy. Revenue was down 9% organically from last year's record first quarter, driven by the significant decline in wind energy in China that began mid last year. To frame up the impact of wind, organic revenue would have been down less than 4% excluding wind. I'll talk more about wind in a moment. Our organic revenue increased around 8% sequentially from the fourth quarter. We attribute that to normal seasonality. In aggregate, we didn't see any significant strengthening of markets or orders to start the year. Across that 4%, most other markets were down as the softness that started in the second half of last year continued through the first quarter. Notable exceptions included aerospace, rail, services in India, all of which were up from prior year. Including acquisitions and currency, revenue was down less than 6%. First quarter cash flow was seasonably weak, but this will increase through the year and we remain confident in the cash generation of the business. EBITDA margins of 20.7% were down just 30 basis points from last year despite the organic revenue decline. There were several contributing factors to the margins that I'd like to highlight. First, we have made significant progress over the last decade to diversify and steadily improve the Timken portfolio, which continues to result in greater performance in both the top and bottom lines. This includes the six acquisitions we completed last year, which contributed positively to the results in the quarter. Second, we are benefiting from our investments in operational excellence and other self-help initiatives. Our Mexico operation is one example. The Bearing plant ramped up through last year and is now performing well and contributing to year-over-year results. Acquisition synergies are also helping margins. Margins are up at several of our recent acquisitions including SPINEA, American Roller Bearing and GGB as we have successfully delivered cost synergies across the portfolio. Mix and price are also contributing to margins. We came into the year expecting price to be modestly positive for the full year, less than 1%. We started the year well and we still expect full-year price to be positive. We also expect price cost to be modestly positive for the full year as the pace of inflation particularly in raw material and logistics has eased. And finally, we've been steadily improving operating performance the last two years as we've come out of COVID, supply chain and inflation issues. We sequentially improved each quarter last year and we continued to improve into the start of 2024. We're operating much better today than we were a year ago and I would say that our supply chains are back to pre-COVID levels. We also have great focus on continuing this momentum through our CapEx spend and our operational excellence initiatives. We're also continuing to adjust our cost levels to the realities of the demand. We lowered our headcount by about 8% through the course of last year and we lowered another 2% during the first quarter. Earnings per share of $1.77 was down 15% from last year's record quarter. $1.77 marks the fourth highest quarter in company history. Both the earnings, as well as the 20.7% EBITDA margins in the face of a 9% decline in organic volume reflect the strength and diversity of the portfolio, excellent execution and the impact of years of consistent and effective capital allocation. The Q1 was a good start to the year in a challenging market environment. To add more color to the biggest challenge in our markets, I'll expand on our wind energy results. We signaled mid-last year that after several years of very strong growth, we saw a significant decline in forward demand. While I won't share the specific figure, our wind revenue was down over 50% in the quarter from last year's record level. The demand situation has stabilized at this level, but we do not see any imminent catalyst to return to growth and our full-year guidance doesn't reflect any improvement in the market through the course of the year. Again, the market appears to have stabilized. We don't expect further erosion in the market and the comps get significantly easier in the third quarter, but we do not expect the remainder of the year to sequentially improve. Longer term, we still believe in the growth of the global wind energy market, the value of our technology in making wind a reliable and cost-effective source of energy, the aftermarket potential of servicing our installed base and our ability to profitably win in the wind market long term. I'd also like to point out that we absorbed the steep decline in wind revenue and the associated cost issues in the first quarter and still delivered 20.7% EBITDA margins. Turning to the rest of the outlook. We are modestly increasing the outlook for the remainder of the year for revenue, margins and earnings per share, but we are continuing to take a cautious outlook on second half revenue. Sequentially, off the first quarter, we're planning for flattish revenue in Q2 and then seasonal declines in the second half of the year. From a year-over-year perspective, the comps get significantly easier in the third and fourth quarters. We'll continue to adjust our operating costs and inventory levels down with the revenue. We expect to deliver good margins for the year despite the general market softness and we expect to deliver a step-up in cash flow through the rest of the year. If markets are stronger than we were expecting, we will be able to pivot and capitalize as we've done before. Looking at the longer-term outlook, we remain confident in the growth potential for our portfolio, and we will continue to invest in our growth and margin initiatives. For example, we're advancing our digital capabilities. We completed two ERP upgrades in the first quarter and introduced new digital selling tools for distributors. We also recently announced the expansion of our Mexico operation and the consolidation of several smaller manufacturing facilities to optimize our footprint. Six acquisitions completed last year are performing well, and we continue to drive both revenue and cost synergies across all of the recent acquisitions. Our application engineering pipeline remains active as customers continue to invest in their next generation of equipment. Customers turn to Timken as a development partner in advancing and differentiating their equipment designs. and as further support of that, Timken was recently recognized as being one of the world's most innovative companies by Fast Company. Additionally, our portfolio is well positioned today to capitalize on several secular growth trends including infrastructure spend, reshoring, defense, automation and sustainability. We will also continue to create value through strong cash generation and the disciplined allocation of capital to CapEx, the dividend, M&A and share repurchases. Our debt levels are about at the midpoint of our targeted leverage range, and when 2024 and 2025 cash flow are factored in, we have ample capacity to continue to add value through capital allocation with a bias to M&A. Before I turn it over to Phil, I also want to comment on the upcoming CEO transition. The Board is excited to welcome Tarak Mehta as Timken's next CEO in September. Tarak brings significant experience in global industrial markets, strong leadership skills and a proven track record of creating value for all stakeholders. You'll inherit a market-leading franchise that is both delivering results today and is poised for further growth in the future. We will also assume leadership of an executive team with a proven track record that is supported by 19,000 committed Timken employees around the world. We'll provide more information about Tarak and the leadership transition as we near September. Until then, we remain focused on delivering for our shareholders through the current market softness, while positioning for a return to growth. We remain committed to achieving the Company's long-term financial targets and in scaling Timken as a diversified global industrial leader. Phil?
Philip Fracassa: Okay. Thanks, Rich and good morning, everyone. For the financial review, I'm going to start on Slide 10 of the presentation materials with a summary of our solid first quarter results, which further demonstrate the strength of Timken's business model and earnings power through dynamic environments. We posted revenue of just under $1.2 billion in the quarter, down 5.7% from last year. First quarter adjusted EBITDA margin came in at 20.7%, down only 30 basis points year-over-year. And we delivered adjusted earnings per share of $1.77 in the quarter. Turning to slide 11. let's take a closer look at our first quarter sales performance. Organically, sales were down 9.2% from last year, as continued positive pricing was more than offset by lower demand across multiple sectors, with wind energy experiencing the most significant decline in the quarter. If we exclude the decline in wind energy, our organic revenue would have been down less than 4%. Looking at the rest of the revenue walk, the impact from the six acquisitions we completed last year, net of the one divestiture, contributed four percentage points of growth to the top line while foreign currency translation was a slight negative in the quarter. On the right-hand side of this slide, you can see organic growth by region, which excludes both currency and net acquisition impact. Let me comment briefly on each region. In the Americas, our largest region, we were down 4% against last year's strong first quarter. Most sectors were lower year-over-year, led by Off-Highway, while services and aerospace were both notably up. In Asia-Pacific, we were down 21%, driven by China, which saw the significant decline in wind energy that Rich talked about earlier. This was partially offset by double-digit growth in India on strong rail and industrial demand. And finally, we were down 9% in EMEA as most sectors were lower, particularly in Western Europe, with Off-Highway and General Industrial posting the largest declines, while Services was up. Turning to slide 12. adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter was $246 million or 20.7% of sales, compared to $266 million or 21% of sales last year. Our strong margin performance reflects positive price cost and strong execution, which mitigated the impact of lower organic volume in the quarter. Looking at the decrease in adjusted EBITDA dollars, you can see that it was driven by lower volume, offset in large part by favorable price mix, lower material and logistics costs, favorable manufacturing and SG&A, and the benefit of acquisitions. Let me comment a little further on some of the key profitability drivers in the quarter. With respect to price mix, net pricing exceeded 100 basis points in the quarter and was positive in both segments. This was in line with our expectations. Mix was also positive as several of our higher margin businesses outperformed others on the top line in the quarter. Moving to material and logistics costs. Material was lower year-over-year, while logistics was slightly higher due in part to the shipping situation in the Suez Canal. In manufacturing, you can see that we delivered a modest year-over-year benefit in the quarter, despite continued labor inflation. This was driven by improved productivity, targeted cost actions, lower utility costs and a favorable inventory change impact. Looking at the SG&A other line. costs were down from last year, driven by lower incentive compensation accruals and reduced spending to align with the lower demand. This more than offset the impact of continued labor inflation. And finally, on acquisitions, I would point out that acquisitions contributed $13 million of adjusted EBITDA in the quarter, or a 26% margin on the net acquisition revenue, as our recent acquisitions performed well on both the top and bottom lines. On slide 13, you can see that we posted net income of $104 million or $1.46 per diluted share for the first quarter on a GAAP basis, compared to $1.67 last year. The current period includes $0.31 of net expense from special items, which is comprised mainly of deal amortization expense. On an adjusted basis, we earned $1.77 per share, compared to $2.09 per share last year. Let me touch on some of the below-the-line items, if you will. Interest expense in the first quarter was $7 million higher year-over-year as we expected, while our diluted share count was over 3% lower, reflecting our net buyback activity over the past 12 months. Our adjusted tax rate for the quarter came in at 27%, up from last year, driven by the net unfavorable impact of our geographic mix of earnings and other items. And finally, depreciation expense was up slightly in the quarter versus last year, as well as not controlling interest. Now, let's move to our business segment results starting with Engineered Bearings on slide 14. In the first quarter, Engineered Bearings sales were $803 million, down 10.9% from the last year. Organically, sales were down 10.3%, driven by lower demand across most sectors, offset by higher pricing. With respect to performance by sector, renewable energy saw the largest decline in the quarter against a difficult comp last year. Other sectors were mixed: Off-Highway, distribution and general and Heavy Industrial were lower, while on the positive side rail, aerospace and on-highway, auto and truck were all up versus last year. Currency was a headwind to revenue of almost 1%, while acquisitions, net of the TWB divestiture was just slightly favorable. Engineered Bearings adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter was $181 million, compared to $204 million last year, with margins of 22.6% in both periods. We delivered very strong margin performance in the quarter, as favorable price cost and strong execution, fully offset the impact of lower organic volume from a margin perspective. Now, let's turn to Industrial Motion on Slide 15. In the first quarter, Industrial Motion segment sales were $388 million, up 7.1% from last year. Organically, sales declined 6.5%, as lower demand was partially offset by higher pricing. Most of our platforms were lower year-over-year, with belts and chains seeing the largest decline given its exposure to the Off-Highway market. While services on the other hand was notably up on higher MRO, aerospace and other project revenue. Acquisitions contributed over 13% to the top line, while foreign currency translation was relatively flat. Industrial Motion adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter was $82 million, up from $77 million last year, with margins of 21.2% in both periods. Similar to bearings, we delivered flat segment margins in Industrial Motion, as lower organic volume was fully offset by favorable price cost, improved execution and the benefit of acquisitions from a margin perspective. Turning to Slide 16. you can see that we generated operating cash flow of $49 million in the quarter and after CapEx, free cash flow was $5 million. This was below last year due to lower earnings, higher working capital, a pension contribution and other items, offset partially by lower cash taxes. The first quarter is typically our seasonally low quarter for free cash flow. We expect cash flow to step up significantly as we move through the rest of the year and as you'll see later, we are maintaining our free cash flow guidance for the full year. Looking at the balance sheet, we ended the first quarter with net debt of just under $2 billion and net debt to adjusted EBITDA at 2.1 times, both relatively unchanged from the end of last year. Our net leverage remains well within our 1.5 times to 2.5 times targeted range. Speaking of capital allocation, we spent $44 million on CapEx in the quarter, which includes significant footprint expansions in Mexico and India. We also paid our 407th consecutive quarterly dividend. And we continue to integrate the six acquisitions we completed in 2023. All are contributing well, reflecting both operating performance and synergy capture. For the rest of 2024, we intend to deploy capital towards acquisitions and/or share buybacks depending on the opportunity set. With our strong balance sheet and free cash flow, Timken remains in a great position to continue to execute our profitable growth strategy through smart and disciplined capital allocation. Now, let's turn to our updated outlook for the full year with a summary on slide 17. Given our Q1 performance and forecast for the rest of the year, we are increasing our outlook for revenue margins and earnings per share, as compared to our initial outlook from back in February. Starting on the sales outlook, we are now planning for full-year revenue to be down in the range of 2% to 4% in total versus 2023. This is a net improvement of 50 basis points, compared to our previous outlook and reflects a positive change to the organic outlook and a negative change related to foreign currency. There is no change to the outlook for M&A, as we still expect last year's acquisitions net of divestitures to contribute around 2.5% to the top line for the year. With respect to currency. we're now planning on a headwind to revenue of around 50 basis points for the full year based on current rates, which is down 100 basis points from February. So, organically, we now expect revenue to be down 5% at the midpoint. This is up 150 basis points from our prior guidance, reflecting improvement across several industrial sectors, offset partially by a lower outlook for renewable energy in China and a slightly lower outlook for automation in Europe. The organic outlook implies a range of down 4% to 6% for the year. This assumes no recovery or inflection in the second half, as we continue to take a relatively cautious view given macro uncertainty and our limited visibility. On the bottom line, we now expect adjusted earnings per share in the range of $6 to $6.30, up $0.15 at the midpoint from our previous outlook. Our revised outlook implies that our full-year 2024 consolidated adjusted EBITDA margin will be in the high-18s percent range at the midpoint, still down from last year. but margins are up from our prior guidance on the improved revenue outlook and related mix, and expected strong execution. Moving to free cash flow. we are reaffirming our full-year outlook of approximately $425 million. This represents over 110% conversion on GAAP net income at the midpoint and an increase of $70 million versus last year. The year-over-year increase reflects improved working capital performance and lower cash taxes, which had more than offset the impact of lower earnings. We are still planning for CapEx at around 4% of sales, with most of the spend targeted at manufacturing footprint expansions in Mexico and India, as well as other growth and operational excellence initiatives. And finally, we anticipate core net interest expense in the range of $105 million and an adjusted tax rate of 27% for the full year. To summarize, Timken delivered solid results in the first quarter with revenues that modestly exceeded our expectations and strong margin performance. Our team continues to execute well and we remain focused on driving operational excellence to deliver resilient performance this year, while advancing our profitable growth strategy to benefit 2024 and beyond. This concludes our formal remarks. and we'll now open the line for questions. Operator?
Operator: Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Brian Blair of Oppenheimer. Your line is open, please go ahead.
Brian Blair: Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Richard Kyle: Good morning.
Philip Fracassa: Hi, Brian.
Brian Blair: A solid start to the year, certainly better than many feared. I'd like to start off if we can on Industrial Distribution trends and outlook, just given the needle moving influence of those exposures. And how did orders phase through Q1 versus typical seasonality? What's the current view of channel inventory relative to demand and how does that influence Q2 expectations and the potential range of outcomes in the back half?
Richard Kyle: Yes. I think, I would say distribution was in the markets that maybe played out slightly stronger than we would have expected, but pretty close to in line, a nice step-up from Q4 to Q1, which is pretty normal seasonality and down modestly year-on-year. Inventory of the channel, where we have visibility flattish to down a little bit. So, doing what we would hope it did, generally much less cyclical than the OEM side of it and the MRO side stays stronger, although we do get hit with inventory. So, I think played out modestly down would be the way to phrase it. As you look forward, we're largely looking for that trend to continue through the course of the year.
Philip Fracassa: Yes. Maybe, just a couple of other comments, Brian. So, we did on the back of the modestly down performance in Q1, we did take up the outlook for distribution as you'll note in the market chart to relatively neutral for the full year now. And that's again, off the backs of Q1 and the order book as it exists today, as well as probably as Rich said, still expecting a little bit of destock, but less than what we were anticipating back in February. So that was certainly a driver of the improved outlook as well.
Richard Kyle: Yes. And the Q1 was the toughest comp and Q2 is also very -- fairly difficult comp and then the full-year comps get easier in the second half.
Brian Blair: Okay, understood. Appreciate the color. And 2023 was obviously an active year for your M&A strategy and clearly quite successful. And the margin performance that was cited is impressive. I'm not going to ask for an update on not all six deals, but it would be great to hear quick updates on integration and performance first deal model for your relatively larger bolt-ons of Nadella, Des-Case and Lagersmit. And as a natural follow-up, how's your team feeling about the current pipeline and the potential to sustain deal momentum this year?
Richard Kyle: Yes. Maybe, I'll split them into two groups. There was the heavier integration, which would be ARB into the bearing business, Nadella and Rosa Sistemi into the linear business. So, a lot of integration there. You look less year later, sales teams are fully integrated, management teams largely integrated, margins up significantly in ARB. Some of the cost -- a lot of cost improvement with Nadella and a little less with Rose was later in the year, but there as well. but being more offset by the negative impact of volume within that space. But those that had a heavy cost element have gone very well and I'd say probably ahead of the curve on cost. Those that have more of a revenue play, which would be Lagersmit, Des-Case and iMECH and a little lighter on the operational integration. Some market headwinds, but again, diversification of markets, Lagersmit very different market mix for us with marine OEM, as well as aftermarket and had a really good Q1 and Des-Case as well on the revenue side held up. Again, I'll say better than where we serve the large capital equipment markets that tend to be shorter cycle. The second part of the question was outlook and as I said in my comments, we have a bias to M&A. We certainly have the capacity to do it. We still are primarily focused on somewhere between bolt-ons and tuck-ins. And nothing to report, but an active pipeline. We've completed an acquisition every year I think for 14 or 15 years and no reason as we sit here in May that we would think that we wouldn't be able to extend that street, but nothing to commit to at this point.
Brian Blair: Understood. Appreciate the color, again. Thanks.
Operator: Thanks, Brian. Our next question comes from Steve Barger of KeyBanc. Please go ahead.
Steve Barger: Hi. Rich, congratulations. You'll finally have time to explore all that Northeast Ohio has to offer.
Richard Kyle: Thanks, Steve. I look forward to you hosting me.
Steve Barger: Anytime. You talked about how the current diversification helped maintain margin despite revenue being down. If we end up in a low growth environment next year, what percentage of the portfolio is facing secular growth drivers like renewable, automation, reshoring or however you define secular? I'm just trying to get a sense of sustainability of revenue in a low-growth environment.
Richard Kyle: Yes. I think, I don't have the pie chart in front of me. but obviously, renewable as of last year was still our largest market, automation pretty close behind. The infrastructure spend covers a lot of markets and Off-Highway. And I think our -- I wouldn't say there's enough of a secular trend there to offset the cyclicality as we've seen from our large global Off-Highway customers. We are experiencing a down market in that space. but I think they're all very confident on the long-term trend there. And then the defense side for us typically is not particularly high growth, but holds up really well. It was a really good contributor in 2020 during COVID when those are markets. I guess, one chart we had out on the newer markets was north of 30%, I believe.
Philip Fracassa: Yes.
Richard Kyle: You have the right you have it in front of you, Phil?
Philip Fracassa: Yes, it's about 29%.
Richard Kyle: 29%.
Philip Fracassa: Yes. I mean, just to add on to that, Steve. I mean, I think the…
Richard Kyle: Yes.
Philip Fracassa: Yes, I was just going to add, Steve, just the work we've done to diversify the markets across renewable automation, industrial services that we talked about marine, food and beverage, passenger rail, the infrastructure activity from direct and indirect standpoint quite frankly. The green energy, we feel really and not to mention aerospace, which isn't a newer market. but it's certainly positive momentum market right now and we think long term will be a really strong market for us. So, we do feel like the diversification is improving probably with each deal we do, quite frankly, and it's helping us this year, and I think will help us next year as well.
Steve Barger: So, just to clarify, if we step back from China wind and just think about the portfolio going forward without trying to predict industrial production, you think you're in a position to outgrow IP?
Richard Kyle: Yes. it's certainly been our objective would be to outgrow at a 100 plus basis points. And I think if you look over from 2016 forward and strip it out to organic, I think we've been pretty close to that.
Steve Barger: And last one, sitting here basically, in May, can you talk about your confidence level that 3Q is up year-over-year on an organic basis? I mean, is that basically a lock in your mind given the easier comp and how you see end markets? Or is there risk that we see flat or down growth in 3Q or the back half?
Philip Fracassa: Yes. I would say the outlook, Steve, would really be for, if you look at second quarter, we're likely to be down high single digits again, from an organic perspective and then look for a revenue to start to flatten out organically in the back half of the year, just given the easier comps in several sectors. So, we're not going to probably sit here today and say we're going to be up or still down in Q3. But I think the general trend would be of our negative 5% organic for the full year kind of very much first half weighted down high single digits in the first half and then flattening out or maybe up a little bit overall in the second half. But I probably won't comment on Q3 specifically at this point, but that's kind of what we're planning on.
Steve Barger: Got it. Thank you.
Richard Kyle: Thanks, Steve.
Operator: Our next question comes from Angel Castillo of Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead. Your line is open. Hi.
Unidentified Analyst: This is Grace on for Angel. Thank you for the question. I think on slide 6, you changed your outlook for number of end markets. So, heavy industries went from down high-single digit to down mid-single digit and automation went from neutral to down mid-single digit. So, can you help us unpack that a bit more like what are the underlying drivers of those things might be? Thank you.
Richard Kyle: Sure. thanks for the question. With respect to heavy industries, we were down just modestly in Q1 and we did continue to see pretty good project spending in Q1 in markets like metals, and oil and gas. And so, given the Q1 performance and probably a slightly improved outlook for the rest of the year, we did move it from down high to down mid. Keep in mind, heavy industries tend to be late cycle. So then, as we stand right now, we do see backlog coming down there. So, we're not anticipating an inflection there for the rest of the year. So, we'd still expect it to be down for the full year, kind of more or less in line with what it was down in Q1. Relative to automation, I would say a very slight move there just a couple of 100 basis points just enough for it to move from one column to the other and that was mainly driven off of Western Europe, a big chunk of the business that we have in automation is serving Western European OEMs and the situation in Western Europe remains pretty soft, pretty weak overall. So, we took it down just slightly, but the main drivers to the 150 basis points of improvement were probably on the positive side. The industrial markets with distribution moving over, aerospace moving over, rail services and then probably, the biggest negative would have been renewable energy. It was on the far left to begin with, but it moved even further left if you will just given the lower outlook we have for wind today versus back in February.
Unidentified Analyst: All right.
Richard Kyle: And then Industrial Distribution moved up a little bit and we talked about that one earlier.
Unidentified Analyst: Yes. that's very helpful. Thank you. And also, on free cash flow, I think you raised the earnings outlook, but why free cash flow was kept unchanged?
Philip Fracassa: Yes. I think it was just really a view on our part that we told the guide is typically when we don't take we took the outlook up on slightly higher revenue and as you know, slightly higher revenue carries with it a little bit higher working capital, you may have slightly higher receivables or may need to take out a little less inventory as a result. So, it was really more of the puts and takes of the sales working capital dynamic. And so, while it -- we talk about roughly 425 a range plus or minus and just felt very confident holding it. Like I said, the Q1 was seasonally low, but would expect a meaningful step up Q1 to Q2 frankly and then a nice improvement even in the back half of the year. And at that level north of 100% of GAAP net income, actually north of 110% of GAAP net income, which is what we would typically target at this type of market environment.
Unidentified Analyst: All right. Thank you.
Philip Fracassa: Thank you.
Operator: [Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Chris Dankert of Loop Capital. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Chris Dankert: Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking the questions.
Richard Kyle: Good morning, Chris.
Chris Dankert: I guess, really nice start to the year here on the SG&A front. Maybe, you could just kind of go into a little bit more detail what levers you of pulled there, what is still available to you and maybe, just any kind of comments on what we should be expecting for SG&A as we go forward here on a quarterly basis?
Richard Kyle: Yes. I'd say certainly some self-help there from a year ago or so starting to capture some attrition and we really outside of target things haven't done any significant reduction. But then on the targeted areas, again, I would say acquisition integration, our multi-year digital campaign continues to yield benefits of us getting more efficient, taking out overhead, reducing complexity, reducing the number of systems that we have et cetera. So, I would say the combination of those two partially offset generally, the Industrial Motion segment and most of the acquisitions we look at run a higher SG&A level structurally than the bearings business. So, we've generally been mixing towards a higher SG&A, higher gross margin as well structure. but we've done a pretty good job the last year more than offsetting that.
Chris Dankert: Got it. Thank you for that. And then again, similarly, on the gross margin, obviously, mix played a pretty huge driver from the outperformance perspective there. But just any comments on how to think about gross margin in 2Q, I assume, given that we're still seeing some volume declines that should be down year-over-year just given some of that mix fall off?
Richard Kyle: Yes. certainly, from a -- as you said, we're looking for revenue to be flattish Q1 to Q2 and we built a little bit of inventory in Q1 and we'd be looking to hold our lower inventory in Q2 and then lower inventory through -- certainly through the course of the year, take some inventory out. So, from a pure volume standpoint, Q1 in our guide would have been the peak for the year. I think the other thing as you look at the gross margins, I mentioned this in my comments, starting back in early 2020 through at least the first part of 2022, I mean, very difficult operating conditions from the early days of COVID to a lot of supply chain challenges and a lot of labor challenges, both from COVID and tight labor markets. We've been getting steadily better through all of last year and then into this quarter. The downside of that is our cost comps actually get tougher as the year goes on, because we were better in the fourth quarter of last year than we were in the first quarter of last year, but we're still advancing. So, I think the pace probably levels off a little bit, but we've got really good focus on it. So, we've got some of that built in, but most of it would be a volume story…
Philip Fracassa: Yes. The only other…
Richard Kyle: Seasonality.
Philip Fracassa: Yes. And the only other thing I'd mention on gross margins, Chris, would be the acquisitions will tend to mix us up from a gross margin standpoint. So, we'll have some nice acquisition benefit again in Q2, which typically mixes us up from a gross margin standpoint. Those businesses tend to be a little more fragmented. They may run a little higher SG&A, because they're fragmented, but still accretive on the EBITDA line. But everything else, Rich, I would agree with. And then as he said relative to Q2, we'd expect sales flattish sequentially that would imply down all in mid-to-high single digits, organic would be down high single digits on the top line and then margins and EPS would be expected to be down year-over-year just on the revenue decline and the other factors, Rich talked about relative to inventory and other things.
Chris Dankert: Understood. Well, thank you both so much for the color and I just echo the congratulations again here, Rich.
Richard Kyle: Thank you.
Philip Fracassa: Thanks, Chris.
Operator: There are no remaining questions at this time. So, I'll turn the call back to miss Meghan Elmblad for any closing remarks.
Meghan Elmblad: Great. Thanks, Lydia. And thank you, everyone for joining us today. If you have any further questions after today's call, please contact me. Thank you. And this concludes our call.
Operator: Thank you for participating in Timken's first quarter earnings release conference call. You may now disconnect.
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