Frontdoor Inc. (FTDR) has reported a robust first quarter for 2024, with significant growth in revenue and adjusted EBITDA despite facing headwinds in the home warranty market. The company noted a 3% increase in revenue to $378 million and a 33% rise in adjusted EBITDA to $71 million. This performance is a result of higher prices, service fees, and improved processes, which led to a 14% increase in gross profit to $195 million.
However, Frontdoor also acknowledged a decline in demand due to a challenging real estate market and consumer confusion in the direct-to-consumer channel. The company is actively addressing these issues with a brand relaunch and a focus on customer service enhancements. Looking ahead, Frontdoor expects higher revenue and adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter and has raised its full-year outlook for 2024.
Key Takeaways
- Frontdoor's Q1 revenue grew to $378 million, with adjusted EBITDA up 33% to $71 million.
- The company experienced an 8% decline in volume, primarily in first-year channels.
- Gross profit rose by 14% to $195 million, aided by higher prices and service fees.
- Despite market challenges, Frontdoor is optimistic about future demand and growth.
- The company plans to hold an Investor Day on November 7th to outline its strategy.
Company Outlook
- Frontdoor predicts Q2 revenue between $530 million and $540 million, with adjusted EBITDA from $130 million to $140 million.
- The full-year outlook for 2024 includes revenue between $1.81 billion and $1.84 billion, a gross profit margin of approximately 50%, and adjusted EBITDA between $360 million and $370 million.
Bearish Highlights
- Demand for home warranties is down, impacted by a decrease in existing home sales and tight inventory.
- The direct-to-consumer channel is also facing lower demand due to consumer confusion and reduced spending.
Bullish Highlights
- The company reported strong retention rates and success in its new HVAC sales program.
- Frontdoor is expanding into additional on-demand services to drive revenue growth.
- The Frontdoor app has achieved the $2 million download mark, continuing to attract new customers.
Misses
- Volume declined by 8% due to lower sales in the first-year channels.
- Contract claims costs decreased by $10 million, while sales and marketing costs rose by $7 million, and general and administrative costs increased by $3 million.
Q&A Highlights
- CEO William Cobb emphasized growth prospects in the contractor program due to regulatory changes and contractor enthusiasm.
- Executive Jessica Ross discussed the stabilization of inflation volatility and the tightening of claim costs.
- The company is targeting new demographics, such as the Latino market, and considering expansion into northern markets.
- Frontdoor expects the impact of the trade service fee increase to affect the profit and loss statement until 2024.
Frontdoor Inc. is navigating a complex market environment with strategic initiatives aimed at revitalizing its brand and enhancing customer engagement. The company's record performance in the first quarter, coupled with its positive outlook for the remainder of the year, reflects its resilience and adaptability in the face of industry challenges. Frontdoor's commitment to process improvement and cost management, as well as its focus on growth initiatives such as M&A opportunities and the HVAC program, positions the company to capitalize on potential market improvements and drive long-term growth.
InvestingPro Insights
Frontdoor Inc. (FTDR) has demonstrated a solid performance in the first quarter of 2024, and InvestingPro data provides further context to the company's financial health and market position. With a market capitalization of $2.7 billion, Frontdoor is trading at a P/E ratio of 15.15, which is considered attractive when compared to its near-term earnings growth. This is underscored by an adjusted P/E ratio for the last twelve months as of Q1 2024 of 13.87, suggesting investors are getting value for their money relative to the company's earnings.
InvestingPro Tips highlight that Frontdoor has a perfect Piotroski Score of 9, indicating strong financial health and suggesting that the company is well-positioned to withstand market downturns. Additionally, management's aggressive share buyback strategy is a positive sign, reflecting confidence in the company's future prospects. This is further supported by analysts revising their earnings upwards for the upcoming period, a bullish indicator for potential investors.
Despite the challenges in the real estate market, Frontdoor's revenue growth over the last twelve months has been 6.73%, with a gross profit margin of 50.75%, aligning with the company's reported increase in gross profit in Q1 2024. The company's significant return over the last week, with a price total return of 10.77%, and over the last month, with a return of 12.68%, emphasizes the strong investor confidence in the stock's short-term performance.
For those looking for more insights, there are additional InvestingPro Tips available, which can be accessed through the dedicated Frontdoor Inc. page on InvestingPro. Use coupon code PRONEWS24 to get an additional 10% off a yearly or biyearly Pro and Pro+ subscription, and delve deeper into the company's metrics and future outlook.
Full transcript - Frontdoor (FTDR) Q1 2024:
Operator: Ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Frontdoor's First Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. Today’s call is being recorded and broadcast on the Internet. Beginning today's call is Matt Davis, Vice President of Investor Relations and Treasurer, and he will introduce the other speakers of the call. At this time, we'll begin today's call. Please go ahead, Mr. Davis.
Matt Davis: Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining Frontdoor's First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. Joining me today are Frontdoor's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Bill Tom and Frontdoor's Chief Financial Officer, Jessica Ross, the press release and slide presentation that will be used during today's call can be found on the Investor Relations section of Frontdoor's website, which is located at investors.frontdoorhome.com. As stated on Slide 3 of the presentation, I'd like to remind you that this call and webcast may contain forward looking statements. These statements are subject to various risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed here today. These risk factors are explained in detail in the Company's filings with the SEC. Please refer to the Risk Factors section in our filings for a more detailed discussion of our forward-looking statements and the risks and uncertainties related to such statements. All forward-looking statements are made as of today May 2nd, and except as required by law, the Company undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. We will also reference certain non-GAAP financial measures throughout today's call, we have included definitions of these terms and reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to their most comparable GAAP financial measures in our press release and the appendix to the presentation in order to better assist you in understanding our financial performance. I will now turn the call over to Bill Cobb for opening comments. Bill?
William Cobb: Thank you very much, Matt Davis and hello again, everybody, Frontdoor Inc. continues to operate extremely well, and we are off to a great start in 2024 as we delivered another quarter of record results. As you can see on slide 4, revenue grew 3% to $378 million. Gross margin increased 510 basis points to 51%. Adjusted EBITDA rose 33% to an all-time first quarter high of $71 million. And as a result of our strong first quarter financial performance, we are increasing our full year 2024 adjusted EBITDA outlook. So while we continue to exceed expectations on the margin side, our top priority remains growing our customer base. Let's be clear, right upfront. Demand for home warranties has been down due to some challenging market conditions, but we view this as a temporary cyclical issue. The main cause of lower demand has been real estate. As I've said before, we sell our products as part of the real estate process and as the number of existing homes has declined from 6 million in 2022 to just over 4 million homes today, we have had significantly fewer opportunities to sell our products. This was due in part to rising mortgage rates, which recently reached a one year high. At the same time, existing home inventory has been extremely tight. This is not only limited existing home sales, but it has also resisted in a significant power shift to the seller over the last several years. As a result, our real estate channel sales are less than half of what they were five years ago. And this continues to impact our customer count, revenue growth, profitability and cash flows. And from everything that we see. This is true for the rest of the home warranty category. So while we are still optimistic that the real estate channel will eventually come back, we are waiting to see more tangible proof of the turnaround. Now turning to the direct-to-consumer channel, where we have also seen lower demand. For those of you new to our story, home warranties have historically been sold primarily through the real estate channel. It was only about 25 years ago when we started marketing and selling directly to homeowners. This was a powerful growth engine for us as we saw a strong correlation between marketing spend and our sales. However, about a year after COVID, and we began seeing a decline in consumer demand as the recent indicator of this Google (NASDAQ:GOOGL) searches for the short term, Home Warranty were down 7% this past March. We have known that something needed to change and here's some of the things we learned from really digging into consumer research. First, consumers have a hard time understanding home warranties, they easily confuse it with homeowners insurance or other products. Second, consumers want to feel like they've got someone in their corner. What really resonated with our focus groups is when we grounded them in the higher level benefits of a home warranty like peace of mind, freedom and happiness. Third, we have not done enough to stand out from our competition. The category has been defined by what we call a sea of sameness among providers, and we realize we needed to take action to break out from the competition. Additionally, consumer behavior has been impacted by the larger macroenvironment as a result of rising inflation and higher costs. This has been echoed by several of the other companies as recently as this morning was mentioned, consumers are pulling back on spending. We view this as a temporary reset of consumer spending. As consumers have not been prioritizing the budget protection and convenience of home warranties. I will go into how we are addressing this shortly. Now turning to renewals, which continues to be a bright spot for us. For the first quarter 2024, our retention rate grew to 76.3%. While this includes a lower mix of real estate customers. Retention continues to perform very well. Our team has done a great job of implementing a wide range of initiatives to improve retention, such as better engaging our consumers, specifically during the onboarding process, expanding dynamic pricing to minimize churn, continuing to improve the customer experience with a large part of that effort coming from increasing utilization of our preferred contractors. This is a dual benefit of lowering costs while delivering a better experience. And finally, we have increased the number of customers on AutoPay, which remained at a record 86% in the first quarter, which makes them much more likely to renew their home warranty. We know there is more we can do to improve our customer service and we are diligently working on those initiatives, but I am super proud of our team's accomplishments in this area. We've also been very proud of our new HVAC sales program, which delivered over $50 million of revenue in 2023. As you would imagine, much of this came in the second and third quarter, and we are expecting a similar pattern this year as we head into our peak summer season. In fact, we recently enhanced the Frontdoor app so that all users can now buy a new HVAC system. We are also continuing to grow into alternative revenue streams by building out our technology capabilities for additional on-demand services. Our vision is to provide a consolidated ecosystem where customers have access to video chats with an expert which might then turn into purchasing a-la-carte repair and maintenance services or even new systems and appliances all through our app, more to come here, but we know that the market opportunity is significant, and we will continue to work to find ways to monetize that demand. Let's now turn to slide 6 and our opportunity. As I said on our last call, there are about 5 million homes in the US that have a warranty. We believe that figure could be approximately three times higher if consumers better understood the value of a home warranty, which brings us to the American Home Shield brand relaunch, which is a primary component of our strategy to increase demand. And I'm very excited that we successfully kicked off the relaunch in early April, we took a holistic approach to the relaunch, which has the following components. At the highest level we wanted to break out from that sea of sameness in the home warranty category. And that starts with a new strategy that truly brings a refreshed and high energy look to our brand. We also wanted to connect to new and larger audiences. So we came up with an innovative ad campaign with a new voice and a new brand visual identity. We wanted to have a catchy recognizable tag line. And that's why we came up with Don't Worry. Be Warranty. This tag line captures that feeling. We want homeowners to take away peace of mind, freedom and happiness. It's proactive and goes right at the main word that defines our services. We also needed a new logo so that consumers can better distinguish us from our competition. So we refreshed with brighter, bolder colors and a more modern look, we wanted to use comedy and a strong well-known personality to do something different to break through to consumers. That's why we are extremely excited about our new celebrity spokesperson for ‘Warrantina, starring Rachel dredge, which we believe will drive greater interest in our products. And finally, we wanted a comprehensive media campaign with new marketing partners, as shown on Slide 8. This is now a true omnichannel campaign that is highly visible. We are we develop great new partnerships that are better reflected our customer base for example, we launched a campaign on WrestleMania. We were also on CNN's coverage of the solar eclipse in a big way with our website traffic hitting new highs that day. Speaking of the website, I encourage all of you to visit ahs.com and hope you notice it not only has an updated look, but it also has a more intuitive interface and navigation tools that will improve conversion. In summary, we are truly bringing a refreshed and high energy look to our brand. However, we know we have relaunched our brand in the face of a challenging macroenvironment for home warranties. But that is the point as the leader in our category is our job to turn demand around and we are optimistic this relaunch will improve the growth trajectory for home warranties for years to come. With this much change, it would be premature to talk results thus far. However, we are excited about what we are seeing in web traffic and in other areas and look forward to providing you more details on our next call. Before I turn the call over to Jessica, I want to reiterate that we are off to a great start in 2024. And our first quarter performance continues to show that Frontdoor Inc. is operating extremely well. Jessica?
Jessica Ross: Thanks Bill, and good morning, everyone. Before I get into the details, I wanted to first build on Bill's remarks with a few high-level thoughts about a quarter and outlook. First, we want to celebrate that we had another record quarter, which was primarily driven by better than expected margins as the team continues to drive operational excellence across the business through our margin expansion initiatives. Second, in response to our strong first quarter performance, I'm pleased to share that we are raising our full year outlook for gross margin and adjusted EBITDA. Now let's turn to Slide 9, where I'll review our first quarter 2024 financial summary. First quarter revenue increased 3% versus the prior year period to $378 million. Net income increased 56% to $34 million and adjusted EBITDA increased 33% to $71 million, which both represent records for first quarter performance. Now moving to Slide 10, where gross profit for the quarter increased 14% versus the prior year period to $195 million and gross margin improved 510 basis points to 51%. The gross profit improvement was primarily driven by higher realized price, a transition to higher service fees and continued process improvement initiatives and was partially offset by inflationary cost pressures. Let's now move to the adjusted EBITDA bridge on Slide 11, where I'll provide more context for the year-over-year improvement in first quarter adjusted EBITDA, starting at the top, we had $14 million of favorable revenue conversion, driven by an 11% increase in price over the prior year period. This was partially offset by an 8% decline in volume primarily driven by lower sales in our first year channels. This also includes a $6 million increase in other revenue due to higher on-demand home services, primarily from the new HVAC program. Contract claims costs decreased $10 million, which was better than expected. This includes a transition to higher service fees that had two impacts. Third, higher service fees resulted in a lower number of service requests per customer as we typically see a temporary change in customer behavior until they become accustomed to the new fee amounts. Second, higher service fees also resulted in a lower net cost per service request, and these fees are a contra cost to claims expense on our income statement. Additionally, our contract claims costs improved over the prior year period in part due to our ongoing process improvement initiative. This includes improving our planning processes, moving more of our service requests to our preferred contractors. Our new high cost claims review program and leveraging our bulk purchasing power. These improvements were partially offset by ongoing inflation as well as a $5 million unfavorable change in claims cost development year over year. Now moving to sales and marketing costs, which increased $7 million over the prior year period, primarily due to better pacing of our marketing investments to drive growth in our direct to consumer channel. And finally, general and administrative costs increased $3 million, primarily due to increased personnel costs. To some of our bridge, all of this resulted in adjusted EBITDA increasing $18 million to $71 million. With these results, we exceeded the midpoint of our outlook by approximately $25 million. And I want to take a moment to provide some context here. First, remember, when we provided our outlook, we were working with the late February data and assumed normal weather from March, but then March came in much more favorable than anticipated which was the primary driver of lower incidence or about a $10 million favorable impact compared to our guide. As a result, our net cost per service request came in much lower than anticipated in the first quarter. With a better than expected incidence rate, we were able to allocate more jobs to our preferred contractor network which handled 84% of our service requests in the first quarter. Additionally, we continue to benefit from our process improvements and rigorous cost management by our contractor relations team. We also benefited from some favorable timing around our marketing. Let's now turn to slide 12 for a review of our statement of cash flow. Net cash provided from operating activities was $84 million for the three months ended March 31st as a result of our exceptionally strong earnings and was comprised of $51 million in earnings adjusted for noncash charges and $34 million in cash provided from working capital that was primarily driven by seasonality. Net cash used for investing activities was $10 million and was primarily comprised of capital expenditures related to investments in technology. Net cash used for financing activities was $21 million and was comprised of $13 million of share repurchases as well as $4 million of scheduled debt payments. We ended the quarter with $378 million. This was comprised of $165 million of restricted cash and $213 million of unrestricted cash. We were also extremely pleased with our free cash flow conversion of $73 million for the three months ended March 31st. The majority of the increase over the prior year period was driven by higher earnings, and I believe this number speaks to the cash generating power of our business. Now turning to Slide 13, where I'll provide an update on our current capital structure. We continue to have an extremely strong financial position and a consistent capital allocation framework. Our number one priority remains to focus on growth, and we continue to prioritize investments that expand units as well as grow revenue and adjusted EBITDA, both organically and through opportunistic M&A. Our second objective is to ensure we have a solid financial profile, which includes maintaining appropriate levels of liquidity to run the business and a prudent long-term debt structure. We currently have a very modest level of debt, and we have a low net leverage ratio of 1.1x. And finally, our third objective is to return cash to shareholders. Through the end of April, we repurchased $33 million worth of shares, which brings our total to $314 million since we initiated our share repurchase program in 2021. Let me conclude this section by saying that I recognize that our unrestricted cash of over $200 million is above our targeted range of between $100 million to $150 million required to run the business. This higher cash balance was driven by our better results, coupled with timing and seasonality. This in turn drove our net leverage ratio down to 1.1x, which is below our targeted net leverage ratio of around 2x to 2.5x. We are coming off of some very volatile earnings, and it was not that long ago that our net leverage ratio was closer to 3x, I want to ensure that investors know, we do not plan on keeping our unrestricted cash or leverage ratio at the current level. We have a significant amount of financial flexibility and we will continue to follow the capital allocation strategy I just walk through when making decisions about utilizing our cash which is focused on growth and share repurchase. And now turning to slide 14, where I will walk through our second quarter and full year 2024 outlook. We expect our second quarter revenue to be between $530 million and $540 million, which reflects a mid-single digit increase in our renewal channel, a decline in our real estate channel of approximately 15% to 20% and roughly 16% decline in our DTC channel, which reflects an expected improvement from our first quarter results and a $10 million increase in other revenue to $34 million. Second quarter adjusted EBITDA is expected to range between $130 million and $140 million, a 12% increase over the prior year period. Now turning to our full year 2024 outlook, starting with revenue, where we are maintaining our range of $1.81 billion to $1.84 billion. This assumes a mid-single digit increase in the renewals channel, a 10% decline in the DTC channel and a 15% to 20% decline in the real estate channel. As a reminder, there is a timing difference between the time of sale occurs and reported revenue, which we recognize over 12 months. It also assumes other revenue will increase approximately 30% to a $100 million, primarily driven by higher on-demand revenue mainly sales from our new HVAC program. We continue to expect a mid-single digit increase in realized price, which will be offset by a mid-single digit decline in realized volume from lower member count. As a reminder, our 2023 home warranty count was down 6%, and we expect this to decline 1% to 3% in 2024 to approximately $1.95 million. We are raising our full year gross profit margin outlook to be approximately 50% as we continue to stabilize margins in our core business. This outlook assumes normal weather as we enter into our peak season. When our system is typically more strict. We are also saying that inflation will be in the low to mid-single digits on a net cost per service request basis and the number of service requests will decline 5% to approximately $3.7 million. We are maintaining our full year SG&A range to be between $580 million and $595 million as our 2024 plan includes a previously announced transition of marketing investments from the Frontdoor brand to the American Home Shield brand to support the relaunch. As Bill mentioned earlier, we are very excited about the brand relaunch as we anticipate it will play a critical role in increasing demand and growing revenue for the long term. Based on these updated inputs, we are increasing our full year adjusted EBITDA range to be between $360 million and $370 million. Our full year outlook also includes $13 million of interest income and this led to stock compensation expense of approximately $30 million. And finally, we expect our full year capital expenditures to range between $35 million and $45 million and the annual effective tax rate to be approximately 25%. In conclusion, we are very pleased with our first quarter financial results. We continue to deliver better than expected adjusted EBITDA as a result of the rigorous work the team has done to execute on our margin expansion initiatives, and we remain committed to finding new and innovative ways to continuously improve our business. I will now turn the call back over to Bill for a few closing remarks before we open up the line for questions. Bill?
William Cobb: Thanks Jessica. One final note before we go to your questions, you've heard me on the last call, talk about how we think our stock is undervalued. I still firmly believe that. Our first quarter performance demonstrates the exceptionally strong earnings power of our platform. We generate a lot of cash that we will use to grow or to buy back stock. And finally, I am confident that we are on the right path to increasing the growth trajectory of our customer base. There are so many upsides to this category in our company that we have decided to hold another Investor Day to share our vision and strategy with investors and analysts. The date we have chosen is November 7th in New York City. I think it will be well worth your time to attend and we will share more information as we get closer to November. Operator, let's now please open up for those who are on the line for questions.
Operator: [Operator Instructions] Our first question goes to Jeff Schmitt of William Blair.
Jeff Schmitt: Hi, good morning. Unit volume continued decline in the mid-single digits. Do you think it's going to take a better just kind of a real estate environment lower inflation kind of better macro for to improve or could you potentially cut prices just given our strong gross margins are now? I mean, seems maybe you shot overshot a little bit pricing.
William Cobb: Yes, I think, Jeff, let me answer your question because I think you've hit on the right point here, real estate had service, there is no doubt about it. We have been increasing our level of discounting for DTC. one, and that is something that is underway. And hopefully we're going to realize the benefits of that. With the guide that we put together, obviously we think things are going to improve. We have not seen real estate improved to date, but everything everyone I talk to in the real estate industry says this current turn, it's going to turn, it's going to turn. So I think based on the guide we put together for the rest of the year, we do have confidence that real estate will start to lessen the decline and the turnaround in DTC as we relaunch the brand, we will start to be felt over the coming quarters.
Jeff Schmitt: Okay. And then yes. I guess on your ‘24 guide, so you have revenue growth of 2% to 3%. You have DTC revenues declining 10% unit growth down one to three. So obviously, they both had a kind of a tougher first quarter. So do you have either that kind of turning growth turning positive by yearend or maybe not quite that far. What's the kind of trend there?
William Cobb: I think trended-wise, it continues to get better. I'm not ready to commit to when we turn positive, but that clearly, the math would indicate that we're going to start to improve quarter by quarter. And certainly as we head into ‘25, I think we feel pretty good about where we're going to be.
Operator: And your next question is from Cory Carpenter of JPMorgan.
Cory Carpente: Thanks. You announced the Frontdoor averaged the $2 million download mark a few days ago. Could you just address what's driving the engagement given you did shift some marketing dollars away from that towards American Home Shield? And so is that mostly organic demand and then where are you with some of your conversion optimization efforts there? Thank you.
William Cobb: Yes. So we've been pleased that I think the Frontdoor proposition has taken hold. So I think despite the shift of money, the download pieces continue to grow as have people signing up. The goal here has always been to get more customers and we now view Frontdoor as a holistic business. We run everything through the Frontdoor model for both our in-person services, our new HVAC upgrades, we have the unlimited product out there now. We just in the last week enable the any basic user in the app to be able to get there, get it and they track upgrade. So it's kind of the way we've evolved the Frontdoor model is to really make this the centerpiece of our on-demand services. So that's so it's really not about the conversion per se from the app. It's more about how do we continue to grow users and how do we grow engagement with them for the variety of services that we offer.
Cory Carpente: Thank you. And just a quick follow-up maybe for Jessica. The 11% price increase in 1Q, I know you expected it to be higher relative to the mid-single digit percent guide for the full year. Did you take another round of pricing? Was that above expectations or could you just talk about how you expect pricing and increasing the growth of the year? Thank you.
Jessica Ross: Yes. Now if you remember, Cory, the space is still coming off of those pricing actions that we took in 2022, which again, does take 12 to 18 months to flow through, the peak of that was Q4 and Q1. And so this is really the hit of the peak and you're going to see that decline over the years. Again, those 2022 pricing actions are just tapering off and throughout the year.
Operator: The next question goes to Ian Zaffino of Oppenheimer.
Ian Zaffino: Hi, great. Thank you very much. And I guess two questions. I mean, first one would be on just the DTC business. When you think about maybe adjusting prices here, what type of magnitude do you think you need to adjust prices and to kind of restore growth in that business. And I know you have like a lot of R&D going on to so that probably mitigates the need to maybe adjust prices. But as analysts and we look at this, what should we kind of expect and how do we think about that? And then just could just on inflation. Can you maybe give us a breakdown between maybe labor parts by trade or something on those lines? Thank you.
William Cobb: Yes, I'll take the first one and then Jessica, you take the second one. As far as DTC and pricing, we are doing a blend of discounting as well as all the elements of the brand relaunch that we've talked about. We think we're starting to connect on some of the discounting work that we've done. Based on the guide, we do feel good about where DTC is headed, it's come through a tough trough here. The whole industry is down in overall home warranties. We've talked about real estate before, but I think the array of options. I think we needed to break out from what we keep calling the sea of sameness. I think we're doing that with the relaunch elements. And so I feel good about where we're headed, not only on those elements, but also the pricing actions we've decided to take. So I'll turn it over to Jessica for the inflation piece.
Jessica Ross: Hey, thanks, Ian. Remember, as we communicate Frontdoor inflation, it is on a net cost per service request basis. And so we don't communicate that individually. But rather that includes everything from uncontracted related cost, parts and equipment, impact of regulatory changes, process improvement initiatives and the impact of our trade service fees. So what I will say is that for Q1 inflation really came in relatively flat, which was a bit lower. I think it's continuing to moderate, which is why we adjusted our guide for the full year to be from, I think previously, we communicated mid to low and now we're at more of a low to mid.
Ian Zaffino: Okay. Thank you very much.
Jessica Ross: About mid, sorry, let me just clarify to mid. So we've continued to see some improvements there and hopefully that's helpful.
Operator: The next question goes to Sergio Secura of KeyBank.
Sergio Segura: Thank you. Good morning. Thanks for taking the questions. First, Bill, hoping you could just talk about the American Shield brand relaunch so far, just what you're seeing? I know it's early, but just what you're seeing your expectations for how this will increase demand for the service over the course of the year. And if you think ultimately, just kind of the macroeconomic environment that you guys have been speaking to is going to impact the trajectory of the customer growth for this year?
William Cobb: Okay. Obviously, it's too early to tell to give specific results. We'll talk about that in the Q2 call. I do think what's happened and that's very encouraging is all the elements of the relaunch of come together and fit together really well. I think, again, all the things I went through in the call, I think the new logo looks great. I think our media plan has been terrific. I think the advertising has been great. The website, we're really pleased with what's been going on there. So the elements are in place for us to really start to kick start out of the sea of sameness that we've talked about. I think the other piece is that we believe real estate is going to get better but there's not much we can do about the macro on that, but we're not sitting back and just waiting for, hope real estate gets better and we are working very hard as you've seen with all the work we've done on our renewals business. I'm really, as I said in the call, I'm super proud of the efforts. The team has done there from our marketing efforts, our pricing team, our contractor relations team, our service ops team, everybody, has really pulled together to really drive, these are our customers and we want to continue to keep them as part of our company. And then supplemented by the initiative really from a standing start where our new HVAC program has really taken off as another vector in our overall revenue stream. So while we are going through this trough, new user counts being tough, we are not sitting idly by and hoping for the best. We are working across all elements, trying to come up with new initiatives and new way of thinking. And as you can see by our chart, overall ‘24 guide. We know we're coming through a tough piece in Q1, Q2 is going to get a little better, but I think it's going to be continuing that phase. But at the second half, I think we're going to have improved numbers and leading into 2025.
Sergio Segura: Great. Thanks, Bill. And then maybe a follow-up for Jesscia. I know you guys had very strong performance on margin side and raised your outlook for the year. I guess how should we think about that upside flowing down to profitability and increasing the pace of buybacks versus opportunities to invest even more behind growth initiatives to accelerate revenue growth. Thanks.
Jessica Ross: No, thanks, Sergio. I think it's a great question. I think as I said in my remarks, we recognize that we are sitting at a very low leverage ratio and a pretty strong unrestricted cash balance. And it's not our intention to sit here for the long term. I think where we really want to be as a longer-term target of about 2x to 2.5x on our leverage ratio and really focused on the $100 million to $150 million that we used to run the business. So we are very focused on sticking to our capital allocation strategy, which is really focused on growth and whether that be organically through or through opportunistic M&A. And absent that, excess cash is to buy back shares. So we've consistently been doing that since we launched the program and there was a little bit of timing and seasonality here for Q1, but it is our concern, our intention to continue to do that.
Operator: And our next question goes to Mark Hughes of Truist.
Mark Hughes: Yes, thank you. Good morning. And thinking about the opportunistic M&A, would that typically be bringing new capabilities perhaps? Or is that -- are those deals normally they get that policyholder base and so it's more of a, call it, financial transaction. How do you look at that?
William Cobb: Yes, I think, Mark, I think we tried to look at it in a holistic manner. So we have a BD Group that takes a look at a variety of opportunities that can run the gamut of which you're exactly talking about. We don't have a stated policy of what we are specifically looking for because as an industry leader, I think we have the opportunity to look broadly at opportunities that may enhance the value of our company. So that's really the approach we're taking right now.
Mark Hughes: And you've touched on the other revenue, the HVAC opportunity. Could you maybe flesh that out what gives you confidence or visibility that should continue to expand? I think you perhaps in the past pointed out that there's some penetration of that program with some of your contractors, but there is more to do, do I have that right? How do you think about that growth?
William Cobb: We have, yes, I know fair point. We have a couple of tailwinds here. First of all, there is the environmental change or the regulatory change around refrigerant, which is going to render some of the refrigerant I know for older equipment obsolete. So people are going to have to upgrade their equipment. So that's a macro that's going to help us. Second is our relations with our contractor team in the sense of and there is great enthusiasm with our HR contractors engaged in this program and it's really simple economics for them. They'd much rather do a lot of $5,000 installed and come and then grow a truck for a couple of hundred dollars repair. So we have great enthusiasm from contractors. And then finally, the consumer receptivity to this and the value proposition with our ability to interact with our contractors to buy well with the OEMs. And then obviously our marketing abilities really adds up to a terrific business proposition for us. So that's why we're pretty pumped up about this area.
Jessica Ross: And one thing that I would add too is I think the contractor relations team has really been out there and doing a roadshow also expanding the adoption with the contractors and they continue to be really excited about that. So I think it's both the consumer, what we're anticipating from a consumer perspective, but we are doing everything we can here on the ground to make sure that the program is scaling.
Mark Hughes: And then, Jesscia, the claim development or reserve development. I think it was the $1 million tailwind this quarter. Is there anything structurally that you can talk about there? I think maybe in the past when inflation improved you ended up kind of coming in better than expected in your earlier accruals ended up being too high. But [inaudible] speaking, is there where do we stand on that?
Jessica Ross: Yes, no, I think it's a great point. It's actually something that I've been reflecting on. I think when that first quarter that I came in, so Q4 2022 and delivered results, we had an adjusted EBITDA beat of about $24 million. And I think we had about $25 million of claim costs for home at that quarter. And coming down to that one, I think as we've gotten off the volatility of that inflation, it's really stabilized and narrowed. So that same quarter we had about 15% or that year a Frontdoor inflation tailing down to flat. I think that really aligns with why you're seeing the tightening up of that claims cost development. And again, remember, fair, thank you.
Mark Hughes: Okay. What was the point again.
Jessica Ross: I was just going to say I think there's inflationary pressures. I just want to reiterate the work that the team is doing in terms of driving process improvements across the board that are also tightening up our costs. So I think there's, again getting to everything firing on all cylinders. It's just a holistic profit working together.
Operator: The next question goes to Brian Fitzgerald of Wells Fargo.
Brian Fitzgerald: Thanks. A couple of follow-ups. When you guys think of the strengths and weaknesses of the brand historically talking about the marketing campaign across regions and demographics, how are you thinking about the opportunities to maybe address regional or demographic opportunities that may have been underserved in the past? And then I have one follow-up.
William Cobb: Yes, I think the core of this is with any 50 year old brand, you got to revitalize it and but I think Frontdoor is extremely resilient. So I think that we've had a really good look at trying to revitalize, a brand. Kind of fire alarm in our building. I didn’t set it off Brian, I really will answer your question, Anyway. I'll keep going go. We'll go find out what's going on here, but of course, perfect timing. Anyway, to your point about targeting, I think that there is and Kathy Collins and the marketing group have done a lot of work around new demographics. The Latino market is one that we're particularly interested in as they become a larger part of homeownership overall, we have a Spanish-language website now, and that's just some of the elements. That's just one example of ways we are trying to get more specific on our targeting efforts, but it's the right point to bring up. I think from a regional perspective, we still think there is a lot of opportunity and beyond the Sun Valley and kind of the Smile States where we have traditionally been very strong. So that is something that we are also trying to drive is greater penetration into some more northern markets. But that is part of the opportunity set that we think we're going to help to grow into.
Brian Fitzgerald: Thanks, Bill, and then the other question we had was around the gross margin benefits from the service fee change. Could you give us some color on your expectations for how long that tailwind potential persists.
William Cobb: One thing I would say, and I'll let Jessica answer the specific is, the trade service fee increase was really an outcome of, as contractor costs and increased labor costs and fuel and insurance and all those elements. We raised the trade service fee really in response to staying current with where contractor costs were. Now as far as how it flows through the P&L, I’ll let Jessica --.
Jessica Ross: I mean, again, these are behavior shifts and so they debate can take time so we've anticipated this in our plans throughout 2024.
Operator: Thank you. We have no further questions. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you again for joining Frontdoor's First Quarter 2024 Earnings Call. Today's call is now concluded.
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