Bitcoin's future price movements could be significantly influenced by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) decision on pending Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) applications, according to several experts. Currently, there are 16 spot ETF applications awaiting SEC approval, including 12 for Bitcoin and four for Ethereum, as stated by Kashif Raza, the founder of Bitinning.
Economist Alex Krüger anticipates a 70% chance of Bitcoin ETF approval in January 2024. If the ETF is approved, Krüger forecasts new year highs within a week, creating substantial price fluctuations. However, he also cautions about a potential 'post news short' to $23,000 if the ETF is rejected by the SEC.
Steven Schoenfield, former BlackRock (NYSE:BLK) executive and current CEO of MarketVector Indexes, also predicts Bitcoin ETF approvals within three to six months. Both predictions align with the growing correlation between Bitcoin and the DXY US Dollar Index, suggesting a possible Bitcoin rally in 2024 similar to the one witnessed in 2023.
For this rally to occur, it is crucial for Bitcoin to break through the $30,000 resistance level in Q4 of 2023. Over the past week, Bitcoin has seen an approximate 5% increase in value and is currently valued at $27,699. This rise suggests that traders may be adopting a "Sell the News" strategy in anticipation of the SEC's decision on the ETF applications.
The future of Bitcoin remains strongly tied to macroeconomic factors and regulatory decisions such as those made by the SEC. As such, these upcoming decisions on ETF approvals could have a significant impact on Bitcoin's value and its correlation with other economic indices.
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