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FOREX-Dollar steadies as investors brace for key risk events

Published 12/10/2019, 08:24 AM
Updated 12/10/2019, 08:32 AM
© Reuters.  FOREX-Dollar steadies as investors brace for key risk events
EUR/USD
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USD/JPY
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* Investors mildly positive ahead of risk-filled few days
* Dollar steady vs yen, euro
* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

By Tom Westbrook
SINGAPORE, Dec 10 (Reuters) - The dollar and yen held the
safe-haven high ground on Tuesday, with investors on edge ahead
of a looming tariff deadline, the UK election and upcoming
central bank meetings in Europe and the United States.
Front of mind is whether Washington will go ahead with a
fresh round of tariffs on Sunday, or whether a deal with China
can be reached before then.
White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow said on Friday
that the Dec. 15 deadline is still in place, but Bloomberg
reported https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-09/trump-agriculture-chief-sees-china-spared-any-new-dec-15-duties
Agriculture Secretary Sonny Perdue saying the tariffs are
unlikely to take effect. "There's risks both ways," said Westpac FX analyst Imre
Speizer.
"Trade's still the flip-floppy factor, but I think markets
are still reasonably upbeat about risk-seeking. All these little
movements are only smoke and noise and don't really tell you
what's going on. Cautiously positive would be the overall mood."

Against the Japanese yen JPY= and the euro EUR= the
greenback found support after last week's declines, steadying at
108.56 yen and $1.1064 per euro. Against a basket of currencies,
.DXY the dollar last traded at 97.644.
The Australian and New Zealand dollars were marginally
stronger at $0.6824 AUD=D3 and $0.6548 NZD=D3 , respectively.
The U.S. dollar's recovery after weakness last week has been
supported by a surge in hiring in November.
That has investors almost certain that the U.S. Federal
Reserve will hold rates steady on Wednesday, which has increased
investors' focus on finding a trade-war truce. FEDWATCH
China said on Monday it hoped to make a trade deal with the
United States as soon as possible, though gave no new details or
insight into talks' progress. "Market risk is becoming binary," said Michael McCarthy,
chief market strategist at CMC Markets in Sydney. "A deal could
see further pro-growth trading, new tariffs could see sentiment
collapse in a heap."
Elsewhere, the European Central Bank is likewise expected to
keep interest rates steady, while the pound's fate is in the
hands of voters at Thursday's British election. ECBWATCH
Sterling GBP=D3 sat at $1.3144, just below a seven-month
high hit last week, as polls pointed to a Conservative victory
decisive enough to secure a parliamentary majority.
A YouGov poll due at 2200 GMT will offer the latest guide.
"If the UK bookies' prices are a reasonable guide to market
expectations for Thursday's election, it is hard to see much
more upside for GBP on the outcome," said Adam Cole, chief
currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets.
"Despite the confidence with which markets predict a
Conservative victory, there are still several major
uncertainties," he added, pointing to unpredictable turnout and
polling showing a sizeable chunk of undecided voters.

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