By Barani Krishnan
Investing.com - Gold bugs appear relentless in their pursuit of $1,700, setting another seven-high for the yellow metal on Monday from fears over the coronavirus and potential rate cuts, even as analysts warned of a possible sharp reversal in the market.
“The structural bid in gold should keep investment capital flowing towards the yellow metal, driven by real rate suppression from global central banks who remain willing to let inflation overshoot for some time,” TD Securities said in a note. “That being said, the risk of a near-term pullback is as high as it's ever been.”
Gold futures for April delivery on New York’s COMEX settled up $27.80, or 1.7%, at $1,676.80 per ounce. The session high of $1,691.55 was the highest since January 2013. Last week, COMEX gold rose 4.2%, for its biggest weekly advance since April 2016.
Spot gold, which tracks live trades in bullion was up $27.55, or 1.7%, at $1,670.87 by 2:10 PM ET (19:10 GMT). Bullion earlier rose to a seven-year high of $1,689.
Gold jumped as a spike in coronavirus infections in Italy, South Korea and Iran triggered risk aversion across markets, driving investors out of energy and equity markets toward safe havens.
Bets that the Federal Reserve will be forced into another round of protective rate cuts has also been driving gold higher. The Fed just ended an easing cycle in December after cutting rates back-to-back for three months, a quarter point each time.
“The price of gold is an economic and political barometer of our wellbeing,” said George Gero, who oversees the precious metals portfolio for clients of RBC Wealth Management in New York. “Today’s strong dollar, higher gold and lower stocks all point to continued worries internationally while the virus scare continues growing and the IMF lowers its economic outlook.”
The International Monetary Fund said on Saturday that the virus will likely cut off 0.1% from global growth and drag down growth for China’s economy to 5.6%, which is 0.4% lower from its January outlook.
“But we are also looking at more dire scenarios where the spread of the virus continues for longer and more globally, and the growth consequences are more protracted,” IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said at the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting.
TD Securities, however, noted that gold longs had entered new territory of “dry-powder positioning”, which it said was “off the charts” and could ultimately trigger a reversal in safe-haven flows.
“With more than 56bp of rate cuts priced-in by year-end and equities deeply in the red following some signs of herding into momentum trades in tech stocks, the fear factor has further driven a swarm of safe-haven flows towards gold,” it said. “With the fear factor contributing to extremely extended per-trader positioning, the risk of an aggressive rush-to-the-exits is growing.”