* Thai baht and Indonesia rupiah short bets rise on
political
uncertainties
* Indian rupee long bets marginally higher ahead of election
outcome
* Short positions on S.Korea's won highest since Oct 2008
By Nikhil Nainan
May 23 (Reuters) - Investors bet most Asian currencies will
come under further pressure, a Reuters poll showed, with trade
tensions between the United States and China firmly dominating
headlines once again.
With diminishing hopes of a long-awaited trade deal between
the world's top two economies, the mood across markets have been
apprehensive with investors shifting money to safer bets.
Investors, who were bullish on China's yuan CNY=CFXS for
much of this year until April end, have since raised their short
positions to their highest in six months, the poll of 12
respondents showed.
Trade tensions have taken a toll on the Chinese economy, but
measures promised by Beijing, including massive stimulus, have
started to filter through. However, with tensions escalating
again, the yuan has lost about 2.5% since U.S. President Donald
Trump said on May 5 he was going to raise tariffs on $200
billion of Chinese imports.
Trade reliant economies, such as Taiwan and South Korea, are
among the most exposed to a deterioration in trade relations.
The poll showed market participants raise their short
positions on both country's currencies over the last two weeks
with bets on South Korea's won KRW=KFTC at their highest in
more than a decade, with a slew of weak domestic data adding to
the unit's woes.
It is the region's worst performing currency, shedding over
6% against the dollar so far this year. A state-run think tank
on Wednesday called on monetary policy in the country to be
substantially accommodative. Short bets on Taiwan's dollar TWD=TP climbed to their
highest since January 2016.
In India, the seven-phase general election process that
lasted for more than a month culminates on Thursday with
vote-counting set to show whether Prime Minister Narendra Modi
will win a second straight term. Exit polls have predicted a
clear win for Modi, and markets have cheered them.
Long positions on the Indian rupee INR=IN were marginally
higher from two weeks ago. The unit is just one of two
currencies in the green this year among its peers covered in
this poll. Investors turned bullish on the rupee in March for the first
time in nearly a year, after Modi turned the campaign into a
fight about national security, shifting the narrative away from
criticism he faced on weak job growth and farm prices that saw
the opposition build momentum.
Elsewhere, market participants flipped their bets on the
Philippine peso PHP= , with short positions now at their
highest since December last year.
Uncertainty over the political future of Thailand and
Indonesia has clouded outlook due to recent disputed elections.
Accordingly, investors raised bearish bets on Thailand's
baht THB-TH and Indonesia's rupiah IDR= to their highest
since November.
Protests have engulfed central Jakarta, Indonesia's capital
city, this week while the Thai central bank cautioned that the
economy faces potential hazards from political uncertainty.
The Asian currency positioning poll is focused on what
analysts and fund managers believe are the current market
positions in nine Asian emerging market currencies: the Chinese
yuan, South Korean won, Singapore dollar SGD=D3 , Indonesian
rupiah, Taiwan dollar, Indian rupee, Philippine peso, Malaysian
ringgit MYR= and the Thai baht.
The poll uses estimates of net long or short positions on a
scale of minus 3 to plus 3. A score of plus 3 indicates the
market is significantly long U.S. dollars.
The figures include positions held through non-deliverable
forwards (NDFs).
The survey findings ASIAPOSN are provided below (positions
in U.S. dollar versus each currency):
DDMM CNY KRW {{2034|SGD IDIDR TWD INR MYR PHP THB
23/5 1.28 1.69 1.01 0.84 1.14 -0.32 1.17 0.60 0.41
09/5 0.26 1.29 0.29 0.07 0.44 -0.28 0.67 -0.03 0.29
25/4 -0.35 0.65 -0.08 -0.29 0.25 -0.48 0.33 -0.13 0.02
11/4 -0.30 0.51 -0.28 -0.07 0.26 -0.67 -0.10 -0.03 -0.15
28/3 -0.59 0.3 -0.32 0.21 0.16 -0.58 -0.32 0.22 -0.57
14/3 -0.66 0.47 -0.25 0.05 0.38 -0.21 -0.13 -0.13 -0.52
28/2 -0.68 0.17 -0.66 -0.86 0.59 0.08 -0.35 -0.49 -1.36
14/2 -0.48 0.18 -0.39 -0.59 0.39 0.35 -0.43 -0.29 -1.2
24/1 -0.17 0.08 -0.21 -0.22 0.29 0.59 -0.37 0.20 -0.68
10/1 0.08 -0.06 -0.33 -0.21 0.13 0.14 -0.06 0.23 -0.67
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Poll: Asia's emerging market currencies http://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/rngs/ASIA-FX/0100214E2S7/index.html
Yuan bears re-emerge on fresh trade deal woes; short bets on
Korean won soar https://www.reuters.com/article/us-markets-asia-forex-idUSKCN1SF0HL
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