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FOREX-U.S. dollar rises as caution reigns ahead of key central bank meetings

Published 03/15/2021, 11:03 PM
Updated 03/15/2021, 11:10 PM
© Reuters.
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* Focus on central bank meetings this week
* Dollar index gains for 3rd day
* Dollar up vs yen, hits highest since June
* Bitcoin comes off highs hit over weekend

(Adds new comment, bullets, FX table, updates prices, changes byline, dateline; previous LONDON)
By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
NEW YORK, March 15 (Reuters) - The dollar gained for a third straight session on Monday, as traders cut
their bearish bets on the greenback to four-month lows amid the recent rise in U.S. Treasury yields and grew
cautious ahead of key global central bank meetings.
The Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan are all set to meet this week and will likely
set the tone as to where global rates are headed.
U.S. Treasury yields, however, were lower on Monday in line with Europe, ahead of these central bank
gatherings. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields US10YT=RR traded as high at 1.639% on Monday, close to
Friday's top of 1.6420%, a level last seen in February 2020.
Gains in the greenback were more pronounced against low-yielding currencies such as the euro EUR= and
the British pound GBP=D3 while high-yielding currencies like the Australian dollar AUD=D3 fared
relatively better.
"The U.S. dollar has been one of the best-performing G10 currencies in recent weeks reflecting a shift
in expectations regarding Fed interest rate policy," said Jane Foley, senior FX strategist, at Rabobank in a
research note.
"Since the reflation trade is centered around U.S. fiscal policy and growth expectations, the U.S.
dollar could prove to be more resilient than the consensus had been expecting at the start of the year."
Rising U.S. yields have lifted the greenback 2% so far this year thanks to widening interest rate
differentials relative to other major bond markets. The dollar declined more than 4% in the last quarter of
2020.
In mid-morning trading, the dollar index =USD , which tracks the U.S. currency against six major peers,
was up 0.2% at 91.68 . It hit a late November 2020 high of 92.51 last week.
The U.S. currency has been supported by declining bets for its decline, with speculators cutting net
short positions to the lowest since mid-November in the week ended March 9.
Rising bond yields will continue to focus minds this week before a Fed meeting at which some analysts
expect policymakers to strike an optimistic tone on the U.S. economy.
While there are some expectations that the Fed might try to calm bond markets - yields have risen some
60 basis points since the last Fed meeting - the consensus view is Fed Chief Jerome Powell will not make
changes to policy.
"The Fed is not expected to tinker with its monetary policy but instead communicate via forecasts that
the situation is under control and that markets are running way ahead of themselves," SEB analysts said in a
note.
The greenback rose 0.2% against the yen to 109.19 JPY=EBS , after earlier climbing to 109.36 yen, the
highest since June 2020.
The euro weakened 0.3% to $1.1920 EUR=EBS after rising last week for the first time in three weeks as
latest data showed hedge funds slashed their net euro positions.
The Australian dollar AUD=D3 - viewed widely as a liquid proxy for risk appetite - fell 0.4% to
US$0.7725, extending Friday's Loss.
Bitcoin, meanwhile, weakened 3.3% after surging to a record high of $61,781.83 over the weekend.
Currency bid prices at 10:29AM (1429 GMT)
Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid
Previous Change
Session
Dollar index =USD 91.8610 91.6800 +0.21% 2.089% +91.8900 +91.5370
Euro/Dollar EUR=EBS $1.1921 $1.1953 -0.27% -2.43% +$1.1968 +$1.1917
Dollar/Yen JPY=D3 109.2150 109.0200 +0.19% +5.75% +109.3550 +108.9300
Euro/Yen EURJPY= 130.19 130.29 -0.08% +2.58% +130.4800 +130.0400
Dollar/Swiss CHF=EBS 0.9293 0.9296 -0.02% +5.06% +0.9312 +0.9278
Sterling/Dollar GBP=D3 $1.3896 $1.3970 -0.52% +1.72% +$1.3948 +$1.3895
Dollar/Canadian CAD=D3 1.2485 1.2475 +0.08% -1.96% +1.2500 +1.2442
Aussie/Dollar AUD=D3 $0.7730 $0.7758 -0.35% +0.49% +$0.7775 +$0.7722
Euro/Swiss EURCHF= 1.1077 1.1107 -0.27% +2.50% +1.1108 +1.1071
Euro/Sterling EURGBP= 0.8575 0.8588 -0.15% -4.05% +0.8589 +0.8555
NZ NZD=D3 $0.7184 $0.7177 +0.10% +0.04% +$0.7216 +$0.7180
Dollar/Dollar
Dollar/Norway NOK=D3 8.4730 8.4395 +0.39% -1.33% +8.4840 +8.4140
Euro/Norway EURNOK= 10.1042 10.0750 +0.29% -3.47% +10.1150 +10.0431
Dollar/Sweden SEK= 8.5330 8.4783 +0.37% +4.11% +8.5474 +8.4691
Euro/Sweden EURSEK= 10.1717 10.1338 +0.37% +0.95% +10.1912 +10.1339

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World FX rates https://tmsnrt.rs/2RBWI5E
JPY positions https://tmsnrt.rs/3crNRPE
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