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FOREX-Swedish crown jumps on December rate rise plan, NOK feels spillover, ECB awaited

Published 10/24/2019, 04:53 PM
Updated 10/24/2019, 04:56 PM
© Reuters.  FOREX-Swedish crown jumps on December rate rise plan, NOK feels spillover, ECB awaited

* Dollar steady with no trade war developments
* Brexit limbo keeps pound near recent highs
* Graphic: World FX rates in 2019 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

By Sujata Rao and Elizabeth Howcroft
Oct 24 (Reuters) - The Swedish crown rose 0.7% on Thursday
as the country's central bank stuck to its plans to raise
interest rates in December and the Norwegian crown was pulled
higher as well, despite a relatively dovish message from the
Norges Bank.
A trio of central bank meetings were being held on Thursday,
and while none was expected to make any changes in interest
rates, investors were looking for forward guidance from Sweden
and Norway. A European Central Bank meeting will be Mario
Draghi's last as president.
The Swedish crown rose to its strongest against the dollar
since mid-August and gained 0.6% against the euro after the
Riksbank stuck to its plan for raising rates in December, though
it said the rate path after that was not yet clear. SEK=D3
EURSEK=D3 It kept rates steady at -0.25%.
The Norwegian crown slipped 0.1% against the euro as the
Norges Bank said rates were likely to be held at the current
1.5% rate. EURNOK=D3 . The decline was contained by the Swedish
crown's rise, because the two currencies often track each other.
The Norwegian currency gained 0.1% versus the dollar NOK=D3 .
"We don't think that the SEK gains will last for long,
because this interest rate increase may be interpreted by the
market as a policy rate mistake," said Petr Krpata, chief EMEA
FX strategist and IR strategist at ING, suggesting the bank may
be "hiking into a downturn".
Krpata noted that the Norwegian crown strengthened in line
with the Swedish crown, around 8.30 London time, meaning that
its strength is "spillover from the Riksbank decision".
The Norwegian crown recently reached a record low to the
euro and an 18-year low to the dollar despite rate hikes this
year EURNOK=D3 NOK=D3 .
Meanwhile the euro rose 0.2% to a session high of $1.1163
EUR=EBS after data showed French business activity rose more
than expected in October. It gave up those gains after German
figures came in weaker than expected
Investors now await the ECB meeting. No policy changes are
expected, but investors will be checking to see whether Draghi
talks about recent reports of rifts within the bank over
stimulus.
"Today is going to be all about the ECB," said Rabobank FX
strategist Piotr Matys. "We don't expect the ECB to change the
parameters of its monetary policy," but Draghi may use his last
meeting to encourage governments to use fiscal measures to
propel growth.
Most Asian currencies edged up in the absence of
developments in the Sino-U.S. trade war. The Australian dollar was down 0.2% AUD=D3 versus the U.S.
dollar and the New Zealand dollar fell as much as -0.3% to
0.6403 NZD=D3 .
The pound was little changed at just under recent highs of
$1.30, having chalked up 6% gains since Irish and British
leaders said they could "see a possible pathway to a deal" on
Oct. 10. GBP=D3 .


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